- IPOB, Atiku’s ambition, restructuring on front-burner
There is no doubt that Nigeria is currently going through some trial in its nationhood, a scenario that may determine what will play out come 2019, the year of presidential and other elections.
Though, some political analysts believe that it is too early to project into 2019, considering the fact that the present administration still has about two years left, analysts nonetheless believe that current events in the country are enough pathfinders for the electorate, as the next dispensation beckons. Some of the factors that are likely to shape 2019 are examined as follows:
IPOB agitations
Currently, one of the issues, which stakeholders in the country are battling to contend with, is the agitation for secession being spear-headed by the Nnamdi Kanu-led Indigenous People of Biafra.
The agitation recently grew into panic and fear, as the IPOB group came under military attacks, culminating in series of military attacks on Kanu’s Afaraukwu native home in Abia State.
From when the military onslaughts began, Kanu, the IPOB leader, has been in hiding, following which members of the public have been locked in hot debates.
While several stakeholders from the Southern part of the country, like the governors, waded in by condemning the situation, the group was declared a terrorist organisation by the Nigerian Army.
But political analysts are of the opinion that the IPOB sentiment is a formidable factor that could determine where the votes of the Igbo of the South-East will go in 2019.
Already, there have been agitations from the region on the need for the next President to emerge from their region.
The Ohanaeze Ndigbo Youth Council, the youth wing of Ohanaeze Ndigbo, recently warned that Ndigbo must produce the country’s President in 2019.
The Ohanaeze youth wing said the Biafra agitation would take an unprecedented turn if a Nigerian President of Igbo extraction was not the outcome of the 2019 general elections.
“It is an Igbo President in 2019 or a Biafra country in 2020,” OYC, the umbrella body of Igbos youths, declared in a communique, signed by its General Secretary, Mazi Okwu Nnabuike.
Stressing that the Igbo would no longer play “second fiddle in the Nigerian politics”, the Ohanaeze youth wing said it had deployed all its resources toward the actualisation of the long-standing quest for an Igbo President in 2019.
The irate youths noted that their position on the 2019 elections was largely informed by the North’s opposition to calls for restructuring, as well as the quit ultimatum given to the Igbo living in the North by a coalition of northern groups.
Onabuike said, “A situation where no Igbo has been allowed to come close to the seat of power for decades is sheer injustice and hatred, whereas other geo-political zones have been taking turn, either as military or civilian presidents.
“More annoying is the fact that the North, a major beneficiary in this direction, has bluntly refused to heed the call for restructuring, which has been identified as the panacea to the many socio-political problems plaguing the nation.”
Owing to this, a political analyst, Mr. Tope Folorunso, said, with the situation on ground, voters from the region would find it difficult supporting the present administration once again in 2019.
“There is more to all that is happening in the country currently than meets the eye. With the situation of things, it is clear that the event will definitely have some effects on the 2019 general election. Opinions of people from that region will be shaped based on what happened. And with this, we may have what we don’t expect during the election year,” he appraised.
Stressing that the Igbo would no longer play “second fiddle in the Nigerian politics”, the Ohanaeze youth wing said it had deployed all its resources toward the actualisation of the long-standing quest for an Igbo President in 2019
LIKELY IGBO PRESIDENTIAL ASPIRANTS
Following their agitation to produce a President in 2019, three Igbo groups, the World Igbo Youth Congress, Igbo Students’ Association, and South-East Women Professionals, have shortlisted prominent Igbo politicians to run for the Presidency in 2019.
The group in its submission, announced that, “These cries of marginalisation have consistently fuelled Biafra agitation and the only way to end these agitations is to demonstrate, not just in words, but in practical terms, that Igbo are part owners of the Nigerian project. So, having examined these issues, we, hereby, align ourselves with the position of Ohanaeze Youth Council, Worldwide, as we kick-off an aggressive campaign for an Igbo presidency.
“The following names have been shortlisted as possible presidential candidates of Igbo extraction: the Deputy Senate President, Chief Ike Ekweremadu; former Anambra Governor, Peter Obi; Imo State Governor, Rochas Okorocha; former Abia State Governor, Orji Uzor Kalu; immediate past First Lady, Dame Patience Jonathan; Air Commodore Ebitu Ukiwe, (retd.), Lt. Gen. Azubuike Ihejirika (retd.), Dr. Oby Ezekwesili, Prof. Pat Utomi, Prof. Onyebuchi Chukwu, Senator Anyim Pius Anyim, and Senator Hope Uzodinma, among others. These and many more will pass through screening by the Igbo Presidency Project Committee.”
THE ATIKU FACTOR
Recently, there were indications of some internal crisis within the ruling All Progressives Congress, principal to which is the touted aspiration of President Muhammadu Buhari to seek re-election in 2019.
A major sign that there is seething discontent within the party was a recent open declaration of support for the presidential ambition of former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar by the Minister of Women Affairs, Mrs. Aisha Alhassan. Not a few persons were shell-shocked that a serving minister under Buhari could dump her principal for another contender within the party.
Owing to this development, analysts say that an Atiku candidature will naturally split the northern votes, especially if the ex-VP defects back to the Peoples Democratic Party to realise his aspiration, as now being touted.
An elder statesman from the North, Anthony Sani, in a chat with our correspondent, maintained that the President was not guaranteed of northern support in the event that he wants to run for another term. He, however, said the remaining time in office for the President would judge if he would be supported or snubbed by the North.
“If the regime delivers on its campaign promises substantially by the end of the tenure and the President is fit, healthwise, there will be no reason not to support him. But we are midway into the tenure and many things can still happen in the next two years that can sway minds. Moreover, political parties have yet to select their candidates, among whom Nigerians can choose,” he carefully explained.
WHAT THE SOUTH-WEST WANTs
Analysts have also opined that the decision of the South Westerners in 2019 will largely be determined by leaders of the region, some of who recently held a regional summit in
Ibadan.
At the regional conference, some leaders of the region concluded that restructuring the country was the only way out of the present quagmire.
According to them, restructuring and returning the country to regional government as practised under the 1960 and 1963 Constitutions, is the only way
forward.
They agreed that “Nigeria is careering dangerously to the edge of the slope, except urgent steps are taken to restructure the country from a unitary constitution to a federal constitution as negotiated by our founding fathers at independence in 1960.”
To drive home his point, Fayose said in the entire Southwest, it is only in Ekiti that all 26 members of the House of Assembly are PDP, all the three senators from the state are PDP, all members of the House of Representatives are PDP, all council chairmen and all councilors are PDP
RE-ALLIGNMENT OF FORCES
In what appears to be a move towards forming a mega party to tackle the ruling APC in 2019, a new political group, Coalition for a New Nigeria, has emerged with a common agenda to field a consensus candidate in the presidential election.
The coalition, comprising 15 registered political parties in the country, described the just concluded local council elections in Lagos State as “a charade, which was characterised by massive irregularities and vote fixing by the election umpire.”
The political parties include Labour Party, Alliance for Democracy, Democratic Peoples Congress, Action Alliance, Progressives Peoples Alliance, Young Democratic Party, Democratic Alternative and National Conscience Party.
Others are People for Democratic Change, United Democratic Party and National Action Congress.
The Chairman, CNN, and the National Chairman of the Labour Party, Alhaji Abdulkadir Abdulsalam, while declaring the intent of the group, said they would galvanise their energies and efforts to ensure that its common candidate emerged victorious at the
election.
Regarding the coalition’s plan for the 2019 presidential election, Abdulsalam said they met and resolved to work together in order to chart a positive course for a new Nigeria.
“After several consultations and cordial discussions on the political and economic situation of the country, we the following political parties to be known and addressed as Coalition for a New Nigeria, are poised to chart a positive course for a new Nigeria,” he
said.
Another member of the coalition and the National Chairman of the Democratic Peoples Congress, Mr. Olusegun Peters, said the intention of the coalition was to field a consensus candidate for the next presidential election.
“This coalition has been working and strategising for three months to see how we can run a successful government in Nigeria to effect the real change in the country. We are working on how to present a credible presidential candidate for the 2019 general election. So, we are surely not working in collaboration with either the APC or the PDP but this coalition will present a credible presidential candidate for Nigerians in the next election,” he
said.
On whether the coalition would later metamorphose into a merger, Abdulsalam said,
“It will remain a coalition and we are not contemplating a merger; each party remains independent and autonomous; they are to come together collectively to support a new government in 2019 at the
centre.”
