Nigeria entered 2018 with mixed hopes among its citizens for an improved performance of the economy and the polity. While some are optimistic that the economy will experience better growth rate this year as a result of the improved performance of oil in the international market, many experts are pessimistic that, notwithstanding the Federal Government’s big budget and high estimates of fund inflow from the oil market, the economy is still too weak. There are many risks and challenges, which the government must contend with, to ensure that it meets its oil production target of 2.3 million barrels per day.
Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund has raised projections for Nigeria’s economic growth in 2018 to 2.3 per cent. The forecast was revised up mainly to reflect high oil production due to security improvements in the Niger Delta.
However, the country’s population growth rate of 2.7 per cent will subdue its economic growth. Its estimated population is now above 180 million, fuelling fears that except something drastic is done to significantly increase agricultural production through diversification of the economy and adopting meaningful policies that will reduce its population growth rate over time, the country will continue to experience food insecurity problems, especially as agricultural production has been drastically reduced in the North Eastern geo-political zone of the country. This is as a result of adverse climate change caused by drought, increased desertification and Boko Haram insurgency.
However, there are risks and challenges, which governments at the federal and state levels must brace up to resolve, for the country to experience significant growth in the years ahead. The current state of the economy is a major challenge, which both the federal and state governments must solve for the country to move forward.
The Buhari administration should ensure that it reins in the activities of Fulani herdsmen, who kill and destroy with reckless abandon, especially in the interiors; to fully erase the mass feeling that his administration looks on as precious lives are being lost because the Fulani plunderers are from his ethnic stock
The high recurrent expenditure at the federal and state levels is an indication of absurdity, inequity and insensibility on the part of both the federal and state governments. The current situation where governments spend between 70 and 80 per cent of their budgets on paying salaries of only three million civil servants across the country, and on running government, is not in the best interest of the economy and the nation. This leaves only a meagre 20 per cent to 30 per cent of their budgets for infrastructure development, which the whole 180 million Nigerians, including the three million civil servants enjoy.
The Federal Government must also address problems in some key areas in the economy in 2018. In the power sector, it must ensure increased power generation and better distribution. Without uninterrupted power supply, the economy cannot grow as industries cannot expand production. The high cost of manufactured goods in the country is caused by the high cost of running on generating plants by industries.
Of course, the overhead costs incurred by the industries must be passed on to consumers in the form of prices, resulting in uncompetitive locally manufactured goods when compared with imported ones. In the recent past, erratic and poor electricity supply in the country, among other factors, pushed many manufacturing concerns from Nigeria to Ghana, where there is better electricity and the enabling environment for businesses to flourish.
The government must also focus more on infrastructure. It must fully execute both the 2017 and 2018 budgets for it to impress Nigerians.
There is also the need for more employment opportunities in the country. Apart from improving the operating environment for industries to thrive, the FG must think outside the box for solutions to unemployment in the country. The Central Bank of Nigeria’s Anchor programme is a good example. With the Anchor programme, more youths are moving into agricultural production and processing to increase the country’s yield in that sector. Such programmes should be extended to the mining and other sectors where Nigeria has comparative advantage.
However, the litmus test for the Independent National Electoral Commission to prove its capacity and readiness for the 2019 general elections will be provided in July and September this year when Ekiti and Osun governorship and state assembly elections will fall due. If INEC succeeds in conducting the elections, then there are prospects for hitch-free general elections in 2019.
Going forward, Nigerian politicians must realise that leadership is at the heart of governance in Nigeria. Since the country’s return to democratic governance in 1999, only a few of the state governors have shown evidence of good leadership. A situation where most state governments cannot pay the salaries of staff as and when due is in bad taste and says volumes about the poor leadership provided by the governors in the states. The Internally Generated Revenue of the states is woeful and appalling. Without monthly allocation from Abuja, perhaps only Lagos, Rivers and one other state will survive in the country.
Crucial to all these, however, is the issue of security. The Buhari administration should ensure that it reins in the activities of Fulani herdsmen, who kill and destroy with reckless abandon, especially in the interiors; to fully erase the mass feeling that his administration looks on as precious lives are being lost because the Fulani plunderers are from his ethnic
stock.
Added to this is the need to rebrand the Nigeria Police by equipping it with the needed tools and orientation, to fight various criminal acts that have stalked the land, such as armed robbery, kidnapping and ritual killing.
Accepted that the problems of Nigeria are myriad, this administration, which derives its mandate from the people, cannot afford to sleep on or look away, while the same people are worsted.
Happy New Year to all.
