Recent reports from local and global food agencies show that one of the most critical challenges facing Nigeria is food insecurity. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the continued soaring of the nation’s inflationary figures is driven by a hike in food prices. In this report, FESTUS OKOROMADU reviews stakeholders’ calls for President Tinubu to restore hope for the common man by tackling food insecurity.
President Bola Tinubu last Wednesday, while presenting the 2025 budget proposal to the National Assembly painted a beautiful picture of his “Renewed Hope Agenda” especially as it concerns improved living standards for Nigerians in the coming year.
To this end, the President promised to reduce inflation from the current 34.60 percent rate reported by the National Bureau of Statistics in November 2024 to 15 percent in 2025.
“The budget projects inflation will decline from the current rate of 34.6 percent to 15 percent next year,” Tinubu stated, adding that “This is an ambitious but necessary budget to secure the future.”
The President’s promise is coming on the heels of a persistent increase in inflation rate in 2024 climaxing at 34.60 percent in November representing a 28-year high as well as highlighting the deepening cost-of-living crisis in the country.
Unfortunately, the continued rise in inflation rate persists despite the Central Bank of Nigeria’s tight monetary policy stance, including raising the benchmark interest rate to 27.50 percent in November 2024.
Thus, financial analysts insist that structural bottlenecks such as inadequate infrastructure, high energy costs, and logistical inefficiencies as key factors undermine the effectiveness of monetary policies, leading to escalating cost of living. Hence, they expect addressing these factors first before projecting above 100 percent reduction in inflation rate within a year. Tinubu is optimistic that his fiscal policy measures can turn the nation’s fortune around in less than a year.
“A major cause of this food inflation we have been experiencing month-after-month is because a lot of our farms and agro-allied industries are shutting down due to the rising cost of operation”
Breakdown of NBS November inflation rate
The NBS latest Consumer Price Inflation report for November reveals a surge in Nigeria’s inflationary pressures with headline inflation accelerating for the third consecutive month to 34.60 percent year-on-year in November 2024, surpassing the October figure of 33.88 percent.
On a month-on-month basis, the headline inflation rate for November was 2.638 percent. Although marginally lower than the 2.640 percent recorded in October, this subtle decline suggests only a slight deceleration in the pace of price increases, offering little relief to consumers.
Food inflation continues to be a significant driver of overall inflation. In November 2024, food inflation surged to 39.93 percent year-on-year, a sharp increase from 32.84 percent recorded in November 2023.
On a month-on-month basis, food inflation rose to 2.98 percent, up from 2.94 percent in October, signaling intensifying pressures in this critical sector. Imported food inflation, which has been on an upward trajectory since 2019, accelerated further in November, reaching 42.29 percent from 40.96 percent in October.
Core inflation, which excludes volatile items like food and energy, climbed to an all-time high of 28.75 percent year-on-year in November, up from 28.37 percent in the previous month.
This persistent rise in core inflation reflects widespread and entrenched price pressures across various sectors of the economy. Notably, transportation inflation stood out, increasing to 30.54 percent year-on-year compared to 29.26 percent in October. This surge is directly linked to higher energy costs, driven by the complete removal of fuel subsidies. However, on a month-on-month basis, core inflation showed a slight decrease, easing to 1.83 percent in November from 2.14 percent in October.
Across the states, the disparity in inflationary trends remained pronounced. Bauchi, Kebbi, and Anambra recorded the highest year-on-year headline inflation rates in November at 46.21 percent, 42.41 percent, and 40.48 percent, respectively.
In contrast, Delta, Benue, and Katsina recorded the lowest inflation rates, with Delta at 27.47 percent, Benue at 28.98 percent, and Katsina at 29.57 percent. On a month-on-month basis, Yobe, Kebbi, and Kano experienced the sharpest increases in headline inflation at 5.14 percent, 5.10 percent, and 4.88 percent, respectively, while Adamawa, Osun, and Kogi recorded the slowest monthly rises, with rates of 0.95 percent, 1.12 percent, and 1.29 percent.
Food inflation also exhibited significant regional variations. Year-on-year, Sokoto experienced the highest food inflation rate at 51.30 percent, followed by Yobe at 49.69 percent and Edo at 47.77 percent. On the other end, Kwara, Kogi, and Rivers recorded the slowest year-on-year food inflation rates, at 31.39 percent, 32.95 percent, and 33.27 percent, respectively.
Month-on-month, Yobe again led the surge in food inflation with a 6.52 percent increase, while Kano and Kebbi followed with rates of 5.95 percent and 5.68 percent. In contrast, Borno, Adamawa, and Kogi recorded the slowest monthly increases in food inflation, at 0.76 percent, 0.90 percent, and 1.21 percent, respectively.
Financial experts have attributed the spike in inflationary rate to rising prices of staple foods, ongoing insecurity, and recurrent flooding in key agricultural regions, which have disrupted food production and distribution. At the same time, food inflation is said to reflect higher costs of imported commodities such as fish, rice, dairy products, and other essentials.
Industry operators’ perspective
Unfortunately, while President Tinubu believes that he has the magic wand to turnaround the situation in no distant time, operators, especially industry owners seem not to be so optimistic about driving down inflation soonest.
For instance, Director General, Lagos Chambers of Commerce and Industry, Dr. Chinyere Almona, says the chamber is concerned about the continued hike in inflation because, “with persistent and unabated rise in inflation, businesses should prepare for more stress from the burden of higher interest rates as we enter the near year.”
She said, “With the raging inflation rate, the unsuccessful attempt of the Central Bank to reduce the currency in circulation, and approaching a high-spending festive period, we are set to contend with even higher interest rates as the expected outcome from the next decision by the CBN Monetary Policy Committee.
She noted that the high inflation rate has far-reaching implications, saying “One of the primary effects is the reduced consumer spending.”
According to the LCCI chief, “High food and core inflation erode disposable income, reducing demand for non-essential goods and services. Businesses also face increased business costs, as rising transportation, rent and energy costs elevate production expenses, shrinking profit margins.
“Moreover, the uncertain macroeconomic environment weakens the investment climate, deterring both local and foreign investments. Persistent high inflation further threatens economic growth by diminishing the competitiveness of domestic industries and stifling expansion.”
On his part, the Chief Executive Officer of Cowry Assets Management Limited, Johnson Chukwu, insisted that inflation is expected to rise further in December 2024, with forecasts suggesting a figure of 35.20 percent due to price increases from festive activities.
He added that factors such as naira depreciation, high food prices, and sustained pressures from energy costs are likely to keep inflation elevated.
While agreeing with the President’s projection of reduction in inflation rate in the coming year, he expressed concerns over the high deficit in the budget.
“While inflationary pressures may begin to moderate in 2025 due to base effects, the method of financing the Federal Government’s projected budget deficit of N13.08 trillion for 2025 could create additional inflationary pressure,” he stated.
An agriculture expert and co-founder Corporate Farmers International, Akin Alabi highlighted factors responsible for the continuous food inflation rate, while expressing optimism of lower inflation rates in 2025 with adequate implementation of government’s policies.
“It is unfortunate that the price of foodstuffs is still going to go up even till the first quarter of 2025. A major factor that drove the food inflation in 2024 is the high cost of fuel.
“We also had other factors such as insecurity and climate change effects driving the food inflation witnessed in the country this year.
“All the factors mentioned above jerked up the price of food items and the cost of food production in 2024.
“However, the good news is that as regards the 2025 budget, so much attention will be given to achieving food security in the country.
“If the present administration keeps to its word of achieving food security, I have no doubt in mind that it will go beyond this expectation.
“In 2025, we should begin to see the effect of the policies that have been made by the Federal Government, majorly from the Ministry of agriculture,” Alabi said.
He also noted that the interventions should start from “mechanisation, seed inputs and the like and plans around dry and wet season farming, to ensure all-year-round crop cultivation.
“The Presidency has announced that food is non-negotiable and I want to believe Nigerians are going to hold him accountable for those words,” he added.
On his part, an agriculture analyst, Omotunde Banjoko blamed the rising inflation on the closure of some farms and agro-allied industries in the country due to high operation cost.
“A major cause of this food inflation we have been experiencing month-after-month is because a lot of our farms and agro-allied industries are shutting down due to the rising cost of operation.
“Most agro-allied factories cannot meet their obligations. Those able to meet up the obligations are experiencing financial issues and are unable to keep up with the volume and scale of what they would have produced.
“This means we have fewer produce going to the market in comparison to the rising demand. The cost of production in the sector is higher, while the purchasing power is low.
“In the farms, we used to have labourers charge between N2, 000 and N3, 000 for labour but now they charge between N4, 000 and N6, 000 for labour per day.
“All these factors are coming together to drive the food inflation we are witnessing in the country,” Banjoko said.
He, however, reiterated the need for the government to address all the loopholes driving the inflation rates and sabotaging the attainment of food security in the country.
“We still see a lot of diversions in the agric sector and these are the potholes that the government should be filling, now also that we are preparing to go into a new year.
“All these holes, through which funds are being diverted from the real production, should be blocked if they are truly serious about reducing food inflation.
“Basically, the general cost of operation is a major factor driving food inflation in the country. We have a lot of farmers that are in debt.
“As we have farms shutting down, the cost of inflation will be going up,” he said.
FAO raises concerns over food insecurity in Nigeria
Interestingly, while President Tinubu has promised to cut down inflation to 15 percent next year, emanating reports from global agencies such as the Food and agricultural Organisation poses a threat to the actualisation of the projection. More so, as it is believed that hike in the cost of food is the major factor driving inflation in the country.
Thus, the latest report by the FAO which raised concerns over the impact of rising flood in Nigeria as it affects food production needs to be taken seriously and addressed properly.
According to FAO, 29 states across Nigeria were affected by flood in 2024 leading to displacement of around 200,000 people while over 2.5 million were affected and caused significant destruction to farmland.
The report stated that about 31.8 million Nigerians are already at risk of acute food insecurity, while the loss of agricultural land due to flooding is expected to deepen poverty and hunger in vulnerable communities.
FAO stated that as at September 10, 2024, 1.3 million hectares of land, including 558,000 hectares of cropland, had been submerged across Nigeria, stressing that floodwaters are expected to rise further as rivers swell and dams near capacity, posing additional risks to communities in Northern Nigeria.
The report noted that tackling food insecurity in Nigeria will necessitate climate-resilient practices, enhanced infrastructure, financial support and technological advancements. But the FAO insisted that the most crucial elements will be policy reforms and collaborations between agriculture’s public and private sectors.
Rising hunger across West and Central Africa
The United Nations World Food Programme on Friday raised the alarm over rising hunger in West and Central Africa saying over 40 million people across the region are struggling to feed themselves during the 2024 post-harvest season.
In a statement released, the agency said the number is set to rise to 52.7 million by mid-2025, including 3.4 million people facing emergency levels of hunger.
Quoting its new Cadre Harmonisé food security analysis released this month, the world organisation said despite a marginal drop in the number of acutely food insecure people compared to last year – linked to improved security and above average rainfall in some parts of the Sahel, food insecurity is worsening.
The number of people facing emergency levels of hunger has surged by 70 per cent during the post-harvest season and 22 percent during the June-August 2024 lean season, the statement added.
The report listed countries most affected to include Nigeria, Cameroon, and Chad, which together account for well over half of the total food-insecure population, adding that forcibly displaced people bear the brunt of the food crisis.
This situation, the UN said underscores the urgent need for enhanced humanitarian action and long-term solutions that effectively tackle the food crisis engulfing the Sahel and the Lake Chad region.
“To ensure food sufficiency and reduce reliance on imports, N826.5 billion has been allocated to agricultural mechanization, irrigation projects, and value-chain development”
Commenting, WFP’s Regional Director for Western Africa, Margot van der Velden, said, “The vicious cycle of hunger in West and Central Africa can be broken, but it requires a fundamental shift in our approach.
“Food insecurity in the region is driven by conflict, displacement, economic instability, and severe climate shocks. Over 10 million people have been forcibly displaced in the region, with significant numbers in Burkina Faso, Chad, Cameroon, Mauritania, Niger, and Nigeria.
“Forcibly displaced people are most often cut off from their fields and grazing areas making farming – vital for food security – impossible. Furthermore, climate shocks – especially the deadly floods this year that affected six million people – claim lives and destroy livelihoods, disrupting agricultural productivity.
“The continuing deterioration of food security and nutrition despite significant efforts by governments and partners, emphasizes the need for an urgent paradigm shift in response.”
FG earmarks N826.6bn for agriculture in 2025
Meanwhile, the Federal Government has allocated the sum of N826.5 billion to agriculture in the 2025 proposed budget.
The allocation translates to over 100 percent increase from N362.94 billion in 2024 and N228.4 billion in 2023. Capital allocations also rose by 130 percent compared to last year.
The move is seen in some quarters as signaling a transformative approach to revitalizing the sector, bolstering food security and generating mass employment.
The President had told members of the National Assembly while presenting the budget that a key element to drive the projected positive economic outlook next year will be bumper harvests, driven by enhanced security, and reduction in reliance on food imports.
“Food security is non-negotiable. In this regard, we are taking bold steps to ensure that every Nigerian can feed conveniently, and none of our citizens will have to go to bed hungry,” Tinubu assured in his budget speech.
Authorities say that in 2025, the government will commit to creating an environment conducive to both local and foreign investment into agriculture, as it intends to rehabilitate dams and irrigation systems, which have suffered from siltation and erosion.
“To ensure food sufficiency and reduce reliance on imports, N826.5 billion has been allocated to agricultural mechanization, irrigation projects, and value-chain development.
“This will not only boost food production but also support economic diversification and rural development, ” the Director General of Budget Office, Tanimu Yakubu, noted.