Friday, March 29, 2024

As political parties sway Nigerians for votes through rallies

BY BRIGHT JACOB

As a riveting electioneering campaign season in Nigeria, geared towards the 2023 general elections kicked off in earnest across the country, the three main contending political parties, the All Progressives Congress, the Peoples Democratic Party and Labour Party have been flexing their muscles and using the crowd of supporters at their various rallies as bragging rights for announcing their seriousness to either wrest or retain power.

And true to expectations, the predictions by many political prognosticators that the rallies would become a crowd-pulling contest between the political parties are already coming to pass before the very eyes of Nigerians.

One unmistakable aspect of Nigeria’s electioneering campaigns is the presence of people from different walks of life who congregate at designated venues to lend their voice or support to their preferred candidates. And come rain or shine, these Nigerians would usually stop at nothing to use their sheer size to make a statement about their political intents and also promote their candidates.

So, when the Independent National Electoral Commission removed the restrictions which subsequently opened the floodgate for the formal commencement of political campaigns on September 28, the stage was set for the capturing of the soul of Nigeria using such massive rallies to sway Nigerians for their precious votes.

The Labour Party, nay, more precisely, the “Obidient” movement was the first to get off the mark, rooting for the presidential candidate of the party, Peter Obi. Matter-of-fact, the supporters don’t all necessarily belong to the Labour Party. Some are card-carrying members of the APC and PDP, as well as ordinary Nigerians, who disclosed that they wanted to show “organic love” to Obi. According to them, they want to take back the country from those who have “ravaged” it.

Thus, on a wet Saturday morning in Lagos on October 1, during the commemoration of Nigeria’s 62nd Independence Day anniversary, the supporters staged a “Obi-Datti23 Forward Ever Rally” which took place simultaneously in Lagos, Edo, Kaduna, Bauchi, Abia, and other states, including London and New York. And not usually what they would normally do, the spokesperson of the Atiku Abubakar Presidential Campaign Council, Daniel Bwala, and another staunch Atiku supporter and Obi critic, Reno Omokri, gave the rallies a pass mark.

Reacting to the rallies organised by his supporters, Obi himself said in a statement the following day that history had been made and there was “no stopping the Obidient movement now.” Obi also avowed that October 1, 2022, would go down in history as a day Nigerians spoke “with one united voice.”

However, the spokesperson of the APC Presidential Campaign Council, Festus Keyamo, mocked Obi’s supporters who he said came out to beg for money during the rallies.

Keyamo said in a tweet, “Bursting their bubble. Most of them just came out to use the so-called ‘March’ to ‘rag’ non-obedient and peaceful passersby for money. They don’t give ‘shi shi’, but they want ‘shi shi!’. Talk of the second branch of People Deceiving People.”

A talking point of the Obi rally was the decision of a Federal High Court which sat in Lagos and ruled against any form of convergence at the Lekki toll gate by the “Obidients”. The order was not unconnected with the unfortunate incident which transpired at the toll gate in 2020 when armed soldiers opened fire on peaceful #EndSARS protesters.

The court ruled on a motion for injunction brought by 10 plaintiffs which included nine lawyers, who asked the court to stop the rally from holding. The court granted Obidients access through the toll gate but barred any form of convergence or rally there. The Lagos State Government, however, was fingered by Obidients to be the alleged mastermind of the suit. Lagos is the stronghold of the presidential candidate of the APC, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu.

“These are the guys who are ready to bring down any obstacle to not only vote, but defend their votes as well. They are not your average Joe who has only one vote. These guys are like grassroots evangelists who will not only preach their candidate, they will make sure they mobilize people to vote”

Next to organise a rally on October 3 was the office of the Women Leader, APC Lagos, led by Jumoke Okoya-Thomas. The rally tagged “Lagos Women Support Walk For Tinubu/Shettima” saw women come out in large numbers to walk for Tinubu under the drizzling rain, throwing their weight behind the former governor of the state.

Next to follow suit was the South-eastern chapter of APC women who converged in Owerri on October 5 in solidarity with the political colossus that is Tinubu. The women who were received by the governor of the State, Hope Uzodimma, staged a rally which caused traffic gridlocks in some parts of the Owerri metropolis.

Then, it was the turn of the Chairman of the Lagos State Parks and Management Committee, Musiliu Akinsanya, popularly called MC Oluomo, and his followers to come out en masse on October 9 with some Nollywood actors and actresses in a rally tagged “Mother of All Rallies.”

Reacting to the vituperation hurled at MC Oluomo and his followers who were called “agberos”, a political analyst and ardent Tinubu supporter, Reginald Anene, said contrary to what people thought about Akinsanya and his group, they were actually the ones who play the “real grassroots politics” and could add value to the camp of any presidential aspirant they belonged.

Anene said, “They call them ‘agbero,’ but if they only knew its connotation and their value this election cycle, they would wish their candidates had them on their side.”

Continuing, Anene said, “These guys are the ones who play the real grassroots politics. They are the ones who understand the language of the streets. They are the ones who actually have PVC’s, always vote and are ready to vote.

“These are the guys who are ready to bring down any obstacle to not only vote, but defend their votes as well. They are not your average Joe who has only one vote. These guys are like grassroots evangelists who will not only preach their candidate, they will make sure they mobilize people to vote,” he added.

Anene also said MC Oluomo was not a fair weather or twitter ranting supporter, but someone who would always be “on the ground to do the needful.”

He praised MC Oluomo for being organised and having a structure and loyalty which didn’t vacillate.

In addition, he said, “These guys are an army of sure voters and they will ‘speak’ in a few months’ time and help send BAT to Aso Villa.”

The Presidential candidate of the PDP, Atiku Abubakar, also flagged off his campaign rally in Akwa Ibom state with a massive crowd of teeming supporters thronging the “Nest of Champions International Stadium, Uyo, venue.

About five PDP governors were conspicuously missing at the flag off. The governors are Nyesom Wike, Samuel Ortom, Seyi Makinde, Okezie Ikpeazu and Ifeanyi Ugwuanyi of Rivers, Benue, Oyo, Abia and Enugu states, respectively. They were likely absent at the occasion because of Wike’s persistent call for the resignation of the national chairman of the party, Iyorchia Ayu.

Meanwhile, the PDP governors present at the rally included the host, the governor of Akwa Ibom, Udom Emmanuel, the Sokoto State Governor, Aminu Tambawal, Governor of Adamawa State, Ahmadu Fintri and his Taraba State counterpart, Ishaku Darius.

Others were Douye Diri of Bayelsa State, Delta State’s Ifeanyi Okowa, and Godwin Obaseki of Edo State as well as Bala Muhammed of Bauchi State.
A Senior Advocate of Nigeria and legal luminary, Itsay Sagay, who also spoke to The Point, said that gone were the days when Nigerians were swayed to vote for a political party after they (Nigerians) saw the crowd drawn by them with their rallies.

Speaking further, Sagay said some of the attendees at political rallies were paid to be there and that even if rallies were necessary, it was the “settled constituencies” of the political parties that would ultimately decide the fates of the candidates.

Continuing, Sagay noted that notwithstanding those settled constituencies, the Peter Obi factor “would still” kick in the South East, which ordinarily was a PDP stronghold. In his estimation, the Labour Party would most likely “collect” some votes from the PDP in that region.

The former Chairman of the Presidential Advisory Committee Against Corruption under the Buhari administration also submitted that the same scenario would play out in Kano state and the North West, where the leader of the Kwankwasiyya movement, Rabiu Kwankwaso, was perceived to be strong.

Despite the factors he highlighted, Sagay was of the opinion that the PDP and APC would still have the highest number of votes when the election results were collated.

“Frankly, I don’t think Nigerians can be swayed anymore (by huge crowds at campaign rallies). Political rallies are necessary and thousands will come (to attend), but some of them were paid to be present. At the end of the day, I think the constituency of every political party is already settled.

“There will be no major shift. The only thing I expect is that the Peter Obi factor will kick in. Many young ones, particularly from the South East, will vote for Obi and that is going to affect the PDP which normally collects most of the votes from that side.

“And then, Kwankwanso….we don’t know how his participation would affect the PDP and the APC yet, particularly in Kano and the North West. But those are the variable factors.

“Like I said, Obi will collect a lot of votes from the youths, particularly from the East and in the major population centers, like in cities.

But I don’t think his impact would be felt in rural areas. In the cities….in the East, he is definitely going to collect a lot of votes. The Kwankwaso group, too, will do the same in Kano and to some extent, in other areas in the North West.

“But how far that (the variables) would affect the total outcome of the election, I don’t know. But if you ask me, I still think the APC and PDP still have the largest number of votes,” Sagay said.

Asked how Nigerians could differentiate between a rented crowd and a real one, Sagay said it would be impossible to do so as Nigerians may not be able to differentiate between them. Shedding more light, he said that a lot of political parties were guilty of the practice. Sagay also corrected the impression that everyone at political rallies were rented, stating, however, there can be a partly rented crowd.

He said even though some political parties were huge and had strong support systems, the temptation to rent a partial crowd could be too much for them to handle as such parties want to be viewed as being the “biggest” by any standard.

Noting what seems to be an exception to the norm, Sagay said he had seen some “expression of very strong, avid and excited commitment” on the part of Obidients who usually say that no one rented them or paid them to participate in rallies.

On the downside, Sagay said it was high time Obidients began to respect the choice of other Nigerians who didn’t subscribe to their philosophy.
“I would advise them not to attack others viciously and to admit that other political parties have a right to campaign and everyone has a right to support who they want to support. They should stop abusing, insulting and threatening people who don’t agree with their ‘Obidient’ philosophy,” he said.

“Frankly, I don’t think Nigerians can be swayed anymore (by huge crowds at campaign rallies). Political rallies are necessary and thousands will come (to attend), but some of them were paid to be present. At the end of the day, I think the constituency of every political party is already settled”

Urged to give his opinion about which political party was currently winning the crowd-pulling contest, Sagay said it was too early in the day to know. Giving reasons for his stance, Sagay said the crowds that turned up for Obi’s rallies were huge, but when Tinubu and Atiku’s crowds took centre stage, it was equally massive and impressive.

However, Sagay said there was a caveat. According to him, the election will be held in about four months’ time and those who don’t have the stamina to go the long haul will eventually tire out, and the pretenders will be separated from the contenders.

A medical practitioner, Sunday Shotiloye, told The Point that the crowds at political rallies meant little or nothing as anything happening in Nigeria usually drew a large crowd.

Shotiloye stated that such crowds were not a true reflection of either the strength or weakness of the people gathered or the political parties in question.

Answering the question whether political rallies will mean anything to the overall outcome of the election next year, he said, “Generally, any happening in Nigeria would draw a large crowd. Even if you sat by the roadside and started beating a drum, people would start to gather around you.

“I don’t think the rallies are a true reflection of the strength or weakness of the people who are gathered or the political parties involved, and that’s just my own assessment of the situation,” he said.

Shotiloye said Nigerians were a “peculiar” people because of their knack for moving from one political rally to the other, and he concluded the country hadn’t attained the level where the people only identified with political parties because of similar ideologies shared.

“Nigerians are peculiar people,” he began. “You will find out that most of the time, the same crowd that you see with team A….when team B comes out, the same crowd will be there. So, you really cannot tell (who belongs where).

“We have not matured to the level where it is an ideology one can follow. I mean, where the electorate can say that a certain political party believes in his ideology and he decides to go and gather with them and give the party the needed strength. But no, we haven’t gotten to that level yet.

“So, seeing a crowd doesn’t mean that it is (solely) for a particular party A or B. Although, some people are trying to use that, especially on the internet and the media, to try and cajole people. I don’t see it working the way they want it to because (like I said earlier), we haven’t gotten to that level. The set of people you see at Ake in Abeokuta today…if another party was having it at Ibara, the same people would ‘migrate’ there.

“Everybody is looking for ‘what can come to me’. That is still the stage we are at now and it’s unfortunate. The same group of people that was in this party this year will move to that party next year, and they will present themselves as a new set of people. But it is only God that can deliver us,” Shotiloye said.

Like Sagay, Shotiloye agreed it would be hard to differentiate between a rented crowd and a real one. Giving a reason for that, he said, “most of the time, even the real crowds are there because of what they can get out of the place.”

He also said the economic situation in the country was not helping matters as it was to blame for making people attend rallies and expecting to receive cash gifts from
politicians.

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