BY LEKAN SOTE
“Global village” is a term coined by Canadian thinker Marshall McLuhan, to describe “the phenomenon of the entire world becoming more interconnected as the result of the propagation of media technologies throughout the world.”
Beyond interconnectedness of the peoples of the world through air travels, international newspapers and newsmagazines, international television (and radio) networks, mobile telephone, the Internet superhighway that brings news of the world in nanoseconds, the links and enablers of the global village, there is more:
Those who vividly saw it coming in the 20th Century said the event was the convergence or coming together of the technologies of telecommunication, broadcasting and the Internet.
Though that vision is limited, compared to what is now obtained, it is a good enough pointer to what McLuhan, who saw the tomorrow of the world, predicted: That communication technology will open up the world in a way that no part will seem remote or inaccessible to the others.
Whatever happens in one part of the “flat” world potentially affects every other part, directly or indirectly. For Nigeria the first impact of the Ukrainian-Russian War is that more than 1,000 Nigerian students in Ukraine have been evacuated back home to safety.
Also, the scarcity of petrol, and the high prices that Nigerians are paying for petroleum products and for cooking gas are direct results of a war that is taking place several countries away on another continent.
The economic impact of the war is already showing in the rising cost of consumer goods in other countries as Russia is insisting that “unfriendly” European nations will have to pay for gas bought from Russia with Russian Ruble.
The rumour mill is abuzz with suggestions that members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries may soon demand payment for crude petroleum in their individual currencies.
The trouble of conversion of a country’s currency to the dollar and then to the Ruble is both brain-tasking and costly to those in that business and for the ultimate consumers of whatever product that is being traded.
There is also an argument, among economic experts, that sanctions imposed by the West against Russia may have a backlash against the dominance of the American dollar over the global economy.
Gita Gopinath, International Monetary Fund Deputy Managing Director, says: “The (American) dollar would remain the major global currency even in that landscape, but fragmentation at a smaller level is certainly quite possible.”
Rumour says that Russia is taking advantage of the economic sanctions and its expulsion from SWIFT, the global payment platform, to return its currency to the gold standard.
But in its sanctions against Russia, America is realistic enough to exclude fertilizers in the list of concerned commodities. Other commodities that are exempted are: food for humans, live animals, vitamins and minerals, food additives and supplements, and seeds for food crops.
Yet others are: medicine and medical devices, software updates, replacement parts for medical devices and Covid-19 related medical components. It looks as if the European Union, which gets as much as 46 per cent of its gas needs from Russia, is looking to do the same.
Speculations also indicate that many are acquiring the Ruble as a hedge now that future global use of the American dollar is gradually becoming doubtful with the sanctioning of Russia which is now turning out as if America is shooting itself in the foot.
“The surge in the prices of petroleum products is terribly bad news to the citizens of a country that imports petroleum products that are refined from crude petroleum whose price has further risen, even doubled in recent weeks, because of other people’s needless war
“
In Nigeria, diesel and aviation fuel are sold at the exorbitant market prices, unlike petrol that is subsidized. The inefficiency of Nigeria National Petroleum Company Limited, and its predecessor corporation, combined with the current scarcity to make aviation fuel to constitute 70 per cent of the cost structure of air flights in Nigeria.
The surge in the prices of petroleum products is terribly bad news to the citizens of a country that imports petroleum products that are refined from crude petroleum whose price has further risen, even doubled in recent weeks, because of other people’s needless war.
In Zimbabwe, which is already facing double digit inflation, the price of petrol rose by 18 per cent to $1.68 per litre, even though most consumers can only obtain it from the now bludgeoning black market. You do not need to be told that transport fares have risen accordingly.
The United Nations says that Ukraine, regarded as Europe’s bread basket, will not be planting at least 30 percent of its winter crops, which includes wheat that is used in making bread, this year because of the war.
Egypt that imports more than 70 per cent of its wheat from Russia is already short of the commodity, because the war is preventing Russia from exporting its wheat. Thus Egypt and even East African countries, like Kenya, that imports 44 per cent of its wheat from Russia and Ukraine and Ethiopia on the Horn of Africa, are already paying exorbitantly for bread.
Many Kenyan bread consumers are already looking for alternatives as Kenya Bureau of Statistics released a report that indicates that the rate of inflation and the Consumer Price Index are rising dangerously– all because of the Ukrainian-Russian War.
The more than 1,200 kilometres Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline from Russia to Germany is being reviewed by Germany that expects about 66 per cent of its gas supply from Russia.
Germany is taking this step in reaction to Russia’s recognition of Donetsk and Luhansk, breakaway territories of Ukraine, both known jointly as Donbas, and populated mostly by ethnic Russians.
German citizens will experience shortage of gas needed to heat their homes and power their industries for a long time to come. And they will be paying more for whatever quantity of gas they are able to get from wherever.
You might as well know that the price of petroleum products, especially petrol, is also rising in Germany. A Nigerian couple resident in Germany recently sent a video footage showing the risen pump price of petrol (and other petroleum products) in Germany.
America, whose westernmost border in Alaska is merely 53 kilometres to the eastern border of Russia at Bering Strait, North of the Pacific Ocean, has released its strategic petroleum reserves, to stem the obvious shortage. And it is being sold at a higher price to consumers.
These happenings go to confirm the Yoruba aphorism that there are no exceptions to climes or communities where chickens come home to roost. Practically every country will positively or negatively feel the impact of the Ukrainian-Russian War.
Of course, crude petroleum producing countries are smiling to the banks as they rake in higher revenue from increased prices. But those of their number that do not refine their crude petroleum are losing whatever they gain to purchase of costly petroleum products.
The Yoruba would say that some people profit from confusion, as in “Arije ni madaru.” The disruption to mining and freight leads to scarcity that raises prices of crude petroleum and petroleum products.
Interestingly, South Africa’s reaction to the hike in petroleum products is to introduce a subsidy by reducing its petrol levy by as much as 40 per cent in order to reduce the pressure on the people’s finances.
So you can see that the Ukrainian-Russian War concerns you in nearly every way, though you might think that you are far from the madding crowd in Eastern Europe.
