- Bello, Tinubu, Atiku top endorsement chart
- ‘Fayemi’s ambition losing steam’
- New permutations threaten ‘zoning’ in APC
BY AKINWALE ABOLUWADE, BENEDICT NWACHUKWU AND MAYOWA SAMUEL
Strong indications have emerged that major stakeholders in the ruling All Progressives Congress and the Peoples Democratic Party are currently having sleepless nights attending to lobbyists, as the strongest contenders for President Muhammadu Buhari’s job intensify consultations across party lines.
The Point’s investigations have thrown up about 10 names considered to have the brightest chances, currently, of picking their parties’ presidential tickets ahead of the 2023 elections in Nigeria.
These names were arrived at after painstaking research and exclusive interviews, mostly confidential, with key players in the power blocs that make up the two major political parties.
Though some of the Presidential hopefuls have yet to declare their intentions formally, findings have shown that the battle for the tickets of the two major parties have commenced in earnest. The top contenders, it was learnt, had begun to strengthen their political structures across the country.
ALL PROGRESSIVES CONGRESS
In the ruling party, our correspondents found that the party management efforts of the Mai Mala Buni-led Caretaker and Extraordinary National Convention Planning Committee might have inspired some of their hopefuls to intensify efforts on lobbying, intense consultations and structure building.
Currently, the following are the top runners as revealed by painstaking research.
YAHAYA BELLO
GYB, as Governor Yahaya Bello is fondly called, has jolted bookmakers with a combination of highly placed endorsements, mobility of his activities, spread of message, both within and outside the country; as well as a consistent demand, in his favour, for generational shift.
The fact that top cross-party actors have openly attested to their belief, not just in his aspiration, but his ability to do the job, has moved his aspiration well beyond the doubtful stage.
One of the things that stand him out, according to these stakeholders, is the effective management of security in Kogi State, notwithstanding that it shares borders with 10 states, including the Federal Capital Territory. The fact that young people in his state and across Nigeria, particularly students, link the active participation of youths in governance to Kogi State being adjudged the safest in the North is also a big plus.
“His deliberate efforts at positioning women to take up strategic roles in his government resonate with the global agenda of women inclusion,” many respondents say.
That the primus inter pares monarch in Yorubaland, the Ooni of Ife, Oba Adeyeye Enitan Ogunwusi, Ojaja II, has added his royal blessings, in a special way, to his aspiration is another big deal. But above all, what seems to be the biggest advantage is the youthful energy and innovation that young people are throwing behind him.
If the 60 per cent youth population of Nigeria’s estimated 200 million people is anything to go by, then Yahaya Bello must be taken extremely seriously.
On the flip side, there are many stakeholders within the APC who believe he is too young and “should wait for his time”, a notion the younger generation say they find offensive.
“The fact that young people in his state and across Nigeria, particularly students, link the active participation of youths in governance to Kogi State being adjudged the safest in the North is also a big plus”
TUNDE BAKARE
What seems to work in favour of Tunde Bakare is that the national mood supports a disruption of the statusquo, which can be achieved by one who has no stain from previous activities in government.
His consistency in putting forward solutions on nation building, plus an ability to understand the emotional underpinnings of a large percentage of the population, gives him a great advantage.
The energy and work being done on a detailed Seven-Point agenda, which he believes will get the nation moving, demonstrates preparedness for the responsibility.
Respondents say, on a lighter note, that his mystical “Number 16” gives the impression that, perhaps, there is some sort of “celestial backing” for his ambition.
Having been Buhari’s running mate in the 2011 Presidential election, under the Congress for Progressive Change, also suggests a mentor-mentee relationship that can aid a passing of the baton.
Flip Side
The transformation from a clergyman to a politician and his perceived absence in the mainstream politics of the two major parties appear to be the Achilles’ heels in his way.
BOLA TINUBU
The Jagaban of Borgu has arguably the most extensive political structure in the South West. Investigations reveal great efforts at courting the critical North with major signposts in the North West.
His ability to build teams and reputation as a sure-footed political strategist constantly throw his name up in every deep dive poll on the issue of 2023 Presidency.
The Offices of his support groups and his South West Agenda (SWAGA) are all over the place. Findings reveal that top local and international communications agencies have been locked in for Tinubu’s ambition. His much-touted financial war chest also comes up frequently in every survey. His greatest asset is a track record of ability to put talents together for assignments.
Flip Side
“His health and a perceived covetousness and/or desire to own it all” are obstacles that have given rise to trust issues by senior stakeholders in the Nigerian project, key respondents allege.
YEMI OSINBAJO
If there is anyone who has understudied the rescue agenda of the Buhari-Osinbajo Presidency that commenced, first with the Change Agenda in 2015, and then the Next Level slogan in 2019, that person is Prof. Yemi Osinbajo, Vice President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria.
He understands the policy direction of the administration. Although he has tried very hard to distance himself from the activities of his support base and support groups, nonetheless, investigations reveal that influencers and micro influencers are being recruited across the length and breadth of the country in support of his aspiration.
His handling of the country during his short stint as Acting President has also helped in cementing the notion of a possible effortless transition.
Some of those who are close to the corridors of power also hint that he may be the fallback position of Tinubu.
Flip Side
The absence of a well-oiled, self-directed political structure is still the greatest obstacle in Osinbajo’s way.
KAYODE FAYEMI
Kayode Fayemi, as Chairman of the Nigeria Governors’ Forum, has a potent platform to support his presidential aspiration. The collaborative linkage that exists across the parties is an advantage; the sheer influence of the governors, as a group, in the scheme of things places his now seemingly “sleepy” structure constantly in the arena.
He comes to the table with competence, a deep understanding of the issues around restructuring, insecurity and what type of federation Nigerians are yearning to have.
Flip Side
The perceived struggle around maintaining the dominance of the APC in his Ekiti State tends to give the impression that he may not be able to manage a complex process that can lead to victory at the primaries. This is coupled with the fact that he would have left the position of Chairman, NGF and Governor of Ekiti State before the 2023 race hots up.
IBIKUNLE AMOSUN
For some unexplained reasons, the name of Ibikunle Amosun, former Governor of Ogun State, and serving senator, keeps coming up strongly as one person to watch out for in the journey to 2023. Many respondents say he could be the joker in President Buhari’s pack of cards amongst his numerous loyalists.
A complete governance experience resides in him, according to opinion polls. Respondents were quick to identify his being a grassroots mobiliser, strong legislative experience, which aids consensus building; as well as proven executive ability with a strong “can do” spirit, as solid advantages.
Polls also throw up his “not-to-be-ignored” financial ability to bankroll a presidential ambition. “As incident Commander in a few difficult gubernatorial elections in the South West, the nuances of actual management of ‘structures to victory’ exist in him and his team,” polls say.
Flip Side
The number of fences that he needs to mend in his zone, the South West, may be an obstacle.
PEOPLES DEMOCRATIC PARTY
In the Peoples Democratic Party, the following are the top contenders:
ATIKU ABUBAKAR
The Waziri of Adamawa, with his 11.1million votes from the 2019 election, is well positioned as the topmost contender in the PDP. He has name recognition across the length and breadth of Nigeria, second, perhaps, only to Muhammadu Buhari, before he became President.
His pan-Nigeria disposition in politics makes him attractive, notwithstanding zoning expectations. As former Vice President, there are no doubts as to his ability to hit the ground running if he becomes successful in his bid to rule Nigeria.
His support group base has started inaugurating their cells across the country. His message of national unity and employment generation that he ran with the last time still resonates.
There has never been an issue around his financial preparedness, respondents say.
“What seems to work in favour of Tunde Bakare is that the national mood supports a disruption of the statusquo, which can be achieved by one who has no stain from previous activities in government”
Flip Side
He is the only stakeholder in Nigeria that seems to have an alternative address in Dubai. His constant absence from the political space is a major “turn off” for many stakeholders.
BUKOLA SARAKI
His ambition is greatly helped by his responsibility as Chairman, Reconciliation and Strategy Committee of the PDP. This has put him in touch with the structure of the party across the 36 states, including the Federal Capital Territory.
His youthful appeal also comes as a useful asset in the conversation around generational shift. He has experience, both as Governor and Senate President.
Flip Side
Bukola Saraki’s identity crisis is his biggest hurdle. Is he a Northerner or a Yoruba man?
ADAMU MU’AZU
Reliable sources on the field indicate that Adamu Mu’azu, former Governor of Bauchi State, and former National Chairman of the PDP, is oiling his political machinery with a view to throwing his hat in the ring.
He has, going for him, an urbane approach to governance, which makes him likeable and agreeable with many national stakeholders. His political structure is said to be very strong in the North East.
Flip Side
This potential aspirant seems too opaque for stakeholders to know how to place him, according to opinion polls. He needs to work on his political visibility to be taken seriously.
AMINU TAMBUWAL
The Presidential ambition of Aminu Tambuwal, 10th Speaker of the House of Representatives, and second-term Governor of Sokoto State, has constantly been on the table from his 2019 effort.
His chances are mostly aided by his perceived closeness to the Governor of Rivers State, Nyesom Wike, and by his role as the Chairman of the PDP Governors’ Forum.
He is said to have a large following among legislators who are statutory delegates. His blue blood Sokoto North-Western heritage comes in handy because of the voting numbers.
Flip Side
A seeming lack of legacy impacts, as Governor of Sokoto, is a major potential capacity issue on the conversation around 2023 Presidency. Coming from the same North Western zone as the incumbent makes the success of his aspiration a tall order in the Nigerian political setting.
IGBO PRESIDENCY
Though the above-mentioned are considered as the top 10 contenders, Peter Obi, former Governor of Anambra State, Vice Presidential Candidate of the PDP in the 2019 election, brings a unique edge to the race because of the depth of the Igbo agitation.
This depth has produced a constant conversation around a Peter Obi presidential aspiration.
… New permutations in APC
Contrary to the hitherto view that the APC flag bearer would be from the South, and in particular, South West, indications are that this may no longer be given.
Sources, both in Lagos and Abuja, confided in our correspondents that ‘surprises’ are daily being built into the ‘system’ ahead of the big season, which has informally begun.
A chieftain of the party in Lagos, who would not want his name mentioned, told The Point in confidence that “if there is one thing President Muhammadu Buhari is known for, it is the fact that he’s not frivolous.”
“Baba is not frivolous. He does not say what he doesn’t believe in. He believes so much in the party, and he would rather pitch his tent with the party than any individual. So when he said the party would decide, take it from him, he would ensure that the party decides. The mere assumption that “it should be our turn” is out of the equation. And you know, in democracy, the majority will have their way while the minority will have their say,” he submitted.
He was reacting to a quote from President Buhari’s interview on Arise TV in Lagos, where he said, “You cannot sit there in Lagos, for instance, and decide on the fate of APC on zoning.”
Nevertheless, the Oyo State chapter of the party said unequivocally, on Saturday, that it would stay with the existing arrangement of zoning the presidential candidate to the South in the 2023 elections.
The Caretaker Committee Chairman of APC in the state, Akin Oke, speaking through the Secretary of the Media and Strategy Committee for the party’s registration exercise in the state, Wale Sadare, said that there was no basis to suspect that Buhari suggested, at any time, that the party would jettison its zoning arrangement in 2023.
He said, “The President could have mentioned any town or state in his reference. I tell you, he did not make an allusion to Asiwaju Bola Tinubu and it is on record that an official statement was made by the Presidency, which was targeted at disabusing the minds of those who had misinterpreted Mr. President.
“However, Asiwaju is an established figure in the politics of Nigeria but he has not come out to say he wants to be President in 2023, and even if he wants to succeed President Muhammadu Buhari, I think he has all the qualifications and wherewithal.”
A chieftain of the party, political scientist and public affairs commentator, Moyo Jaji, said, “As a party man, concerning 2023, I would like everything to be smooth sailing, but as a political scientist, I have my fears too, because of moves being made by different actors within the APC system.
“It is very natural that everybody will be jostling to have an edge, but from what we are observing now, it is like some people are trying to use governmental machinery to gain competitive advantage. I am sure it is not yet uhuru in APC as far as 2023 is concerned.”
“It is very possible to abide by the zoning arrangement, but you cannot do away with the activities of power mongers within the system,” Jaji, a former Executive Secretary of Ojodu LCDA, Lagos, noted.
Changing dynamics
However, The Point gathered that some changing dynamics in the APC had the potential to dramatically alter permutations ahead of 2023.
A source, who spoke in confidence, listed what he described as the “fall” of former National Chairman of the party, Adams Oshiomhole, as a potential sub-plot in the emerging intriguing political game in the party.
He said, “Though he was adjudged to be overtly overbearing, his sack has been linked to killing two birds with just one stone. Adams had his shortcomings; he was domineering and impervious to suggestions or advice, so much so that the party suffered hugely on account of his indiscretions. The party lost three or four states it ought to win effortlessly just because of one man’s recalcitrant nature.
“But, you see, in kicking him out, a particular tendency in the party was cut to size as it were and there is no arguing the fact that a huge blow has been dealt to that tendency.”
“The Jagaban of Borgu has arguably the most extensive political structure in the South West. Investigations reveal great efforts at courting the critical North with major signposts in the North West”
He also argued that the re-engineering of the party would, at the end of the day, serve as an “equalizer”.
The source said, “Take the re-engineering of the party, for instance. At the end of the day, it will be a leveler, take it from me. There will be no absolute advantage by one group over the other. If any, it will be minimal. After the fall of Oshiomhole, the party has been undergoing a systematic re-engineering; all this will affect 2023 permutations.
“The membership revalidation exercise, amendment of the party constitution and the processes of electing new national, states, local governments and wards executives for the party, among others, will all have some bearing on the final decision on 2023.”
Jaji was, however, rather blunt in his assessment of the ongoing re-engineering of the party. “My brother, all na wuruwuru to the answer,” he said.
He added, “We are talking of power and power game. Some people will tell you that President Buhari is not in charge and he doesn’t know what is happening. That’s a fat lie. Who constituted the CECPC? See, if Buhari didn’t want Oshiomhole to be sacked, nobody could have sacked him.
“So, everything is centred on power and how to secure and retain it. Whatever you see happening today, whoever emerges the victor will hold the power. Let me just tell you, all this revalidation and what have you are aimed at a particular agenda.”
With regard to the PDP’s positioning ahead of the 2023 elections, a key stakeholder of the party, who asked not to be named, owing to the sensitivity of the matter, said the major players had yet to get their priorities right.
“Though there is a reconciliation effort going on, some stakeholders are of the opinion that those in charge of that effort are using the platform to strengthen their structures across Nigeria at the expense of others. The presidential candidate in the last election will definitely not have it easy convincing people to look his way again, but he has a bright chance,” the impeccable source told one of our correspondents.
