Although Section 81 of the Electoral Act 2022 says that political parties intending to merge must each give to the Independent National Electoral Commission nine months’ notice of their intention to do so before a general election, Nigerians have intensified calls for the People’s Democratic Party to merge next year with the Labour Party into a formidable opposition.
The PDP and the LP are the two biggest opposition parties in Nigeria that crave to usher in a new political dispensation in Nigeria.
But since their loss to the All Progressives Congress at the February 25, 2023 presidential election, their die-hard supporters have been calling for a different approach to tackling the political conundrum that is the APC and guarantee victory in 2027, during the next presidential election.
And the two men that are expected to answer this clarion call and engineer a possible opposition takeover are the presidential candidates of the two parties in the last election, Atiku Abubakar of the PDP and Peter Obi of the LP, and the permutation by political pundits is that only a merger or some sort of alliance would make them coast to victory in 2027 at the poll.
Earlier this year, Obi and Atiku had, at different occasions, indicated interests in a merger between the PDP and the LP. However, up to this point, bringing it to fruition has been anything but easy.
None of the moves they have made so far, whether towards a merger or alliance, on the chessboard of power has seen the light of day and their loyalists are worried that time is running out and waits for no one.
Obi and Atiku’s supporters, the Obidients and the Atikulates, are also mortified that Nigeria’s President, Bola Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress, who beat Atiku and Obi to second and third place respectively, has continued to consolidate his victory at the polls and grow more influential, nationwide.
This is why the supporters insist the two former presidential candidates quash perceived differences between them by pulling their resources together to present a united front.
Two Saturdays ago, Atiku and Obi met at the former’s home in Adamawa State for what some people called a “reunion breakfast,” and as expected, Nigerians saluted the “friends” for the public show of camaraderie.
“Our duty now as concerned Nigerians is to continue reminding Atiku and Obi, privately and publicly, that Nigerians will not forgive them if they fail to do the needful and come together. And should they decide to become lone rangers, they will be on their own and not achieve any electoral success in 2027”
Atiku had, in a post on his social media pages, told Nigerians that it was breakfast time with his friend, Obi – who was the keynote speaker at a convocation lecture of the American University of Nigeria owned by Atiku – in the “land of beauty.”
While many Nigerians did not have any qualms about Atiku referring to his state of origin, Adamawa, as the land of beauty, it was, however, the “my friend” reference to Obi that got many people thinking.
It is an open secret that there are no permanent interests in politics. Nigerians are, therefore, interested to know how deep the friendship Atiku is flashing before them is. It is possible, some analysts insist, that merger talks between the two men have gone farther than most Nigerians anticipate them to.
For clarity, Obi may have been the keynote speaker at AUN, but the fact remains that not every keynote speaker later finds himself or herself in the home of the host. And so Nigerians were under the assumption that there is more to Obi’s presence in Adamawa than meets the eye.
Perhaps, that was what the candidate of the LP in the 2023 governorship election in Lagos State, Gbadebo Rhodes-Vivour, noticed and which compelled him to articulate what many believe is inevitable.
Rhodes-Vivour also saw the pictures of Obi and Atiku together, and in a post on X, where he referred to the President as T-pain, he said, “We must form a united opposition to end this T-pain remix that we are all featuring in.”
Analysts have said there would be more pain for the opposition, especially the LP, to contend with if nothing is done, via merger, to shore up the party’s base in the North.
It happened that in a shocking twist, five LP federal lawmakers in the Green chamber of the National Assembly have formally defected to the APC.
They are Tochukwu Okere (Imo), Donatus Matthew (Kaduna), Bassey Akiba (Cross River), Iyawe Esosa (Edo) and Daulyop Fom (Plateau).
The lawmakers, excluding Matthew who represents Kaura Federal Constituency in Kaduna State, said internal crisis in the LP was responsible for their decision to quit their former party.
Matthew’s reason was jaw dropping. He said he defected because he was the sole Labour Party member in the whole North West region.
The thinking by some political analysts is that a merger with the PDP would have helped the LP to keep Matthew in their fold. The PDP has a strong presence in the North and Matthew would have felt at home, not lonely, in the North.
A political analyst, Damion Ugorji, told The Point, “I don’t think that a merger between the PDP and the LP will see the light of day. The two men’s ego would not sustain such a project.
“Those that are calling for a merger or alliance will be disappointed.
We are about to enter into the New Year, 2025, but like 2024, the coming year will also come and go without any merger or alliance between Atiku and Obi.
“2025 would then be followed by 2026 and before they know what hit them, election will, in 2027, be knocking on the door.
“And if I were a supporter of either Obi or Atiku, I would not call for a merger for my aspirant or candidate with another aspirant or candidate. It doesn’t make sense to me. If you know you carry enough political weight, I would suggest that you go into the ring alone and demonstrate your popularity.”
Asked whether the much anticipated merger or alliance would be the game changer in 2027 for Atiku and Obi, Ugorji said it would not.
According to him, “Tinubu and the APC have been busy all along merging with more Nigerians.”
“You can take this answer to the bank. You see, even if they form an alliance or merger, it would still not save them in 2027.
“If they wanted to do it, they would have done so before now. They would have used the opportunity that time is bringing their way now to check the pulse of the people and know whether Nigerians will support their merger.
“Well, if the opposition must know, Tinubu and the APC are not sleeping. Tinubu and the APC have been busy merging with more Nigerians.
“And there’s something encouraging I have also noticed. Despite the economic hardship, it seems more Nigerians are sympathetic with the President. And this will come back to hunt the opposition in 2023,” he said.
Another analyst, Charles Ndubuisi, however disagrees with the submissions made by Ugorji.
Ndubuisi said that members of the APC who believe that a merger or an alliance between Atiku and Obi would not help the opposition, should remember that “it did the trick for them” in 2015.
He also said that the greatest challenge a possible Atiku-Obi alliance would face would be who between the two men would emerge as Presidential candidate.
“I wonder why the APC and their supporters are saying that a merger or an alliance would not bring the presidency to the opposition in 2027. That will be their biggest mistake.
“Have they, so soon, forgotten how they came to power? Have they forgotten that the merger and alliances they entered before the 2015 general elections did the trick for them? They will soon relearn this lesson.
“Atiku is strong in the North while Obi is strong in the South. Their combination will spell doom for the APC.
“But what I fear about the merger is who would be the leader. If they can resolve that issue, they are good to win.
“Therefore, I encourage Nigerians who want the utmost best for this country to continue to ask the PDP and LP for a merger or even an alliance.
“The two parties are currently acting like they are self-sufficient and can run the course independently, but I completely disagree with that notion.
“Our duty now as concerned Nigerians is to continue reminding Atiku and Obi, privately and publicly, that Nigerians will not forgive them if they fail to do the needful and come together. And should they decide to become lone rangers, they will be on their own and not achieve any electoral success in 2027.”