Buhari, Tinubu, Bello, INEC boss top list
‘Sanwo-Olu’s loyalty may be ‘tested’ in Lagos’
Atiku, Wike, Saraki, Ayu to determine PDP’s fate – Analysts
Amosun still on observers’ list
BY ROTIMI DUROJAIYE
The year 2021 was definitely one of the most dramatic years in Nigeria’s modern political history. The country’s political sphere was filled with its usual twists and turns, which led to defections, re-appointments, dismissals and more.
With just three days into the year 2022, some Nigerians, in no particular order, but by virtue of their official positions, social status, or other conditions, are considered as those to shape activities ahead of the 2023 general elections.
Muhammadu Buhari
As the president of Nigeria and leader of the governing All Progressives Congress, his actions will be central to most political intrigues and outcomes across party lines in 2022. By virtue of his office, President Buhari is largely expected to dictate the pace of political events in the build-up to the 2023 general elections, especially as he won’t be on the ballot for the first time in 20 years. Will he be decisive enough to whip all warring APC camps into his preferred position? This is the question on the lips of keen watchers.
Yemi Osinbajo
The Vice President is a key figure in the narrative on who succeeds Buhari in 2023. Although he has yet to declare intent to seek the position, some of his supporters have since set up a presidential campaign office. To this end, his every action and inaction will be critical in the coming year.
He has had some endorsements of key political figures just like many others seen to be in the race. However, political watchers are waiting to see how and when he would eventually have the boldness to launch his campaign, having frequently denied link with many ‘Osinbajo for President’ campaign materials. But Osinbajo remains a top material for Presidency in APC.
“Lawan has remained a man of his words as Senate President. He had promised to cooperate and work with the President which his leadership of the Senate has religiously kept to. Under his watch, all requests by President Buhari had received dutiful approval leading to allegations that he had weakened that arm of government and thereby subsumed it in the presidency
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Mahmood Yakubu
As chairman of the Independent National Electoral Commission, Yakubu is, perhaps, the most critical apolitical personality in the entire process. As such, he will be a prime person of interest in 2022.
Atiku Abubakar
The former vice president has remained a constant figure in presidential elections in Nigeria since 1993. And 2023 will not be an exception as reports are already rife that he will, again, enter the fray. As his supporters, yet again, await his formal declaration for the top seat, he will certainly be a person to watch out for in 2022. He has since taken to being quite active in PDP activities having returned from what some called political hibernation in Dubai.
Bola Tinubu
With the speculation of his 2023 presidential bid gaining momentum, the former Lagos State governor and national leader of the APC will be a key person to look out for this year. While his political engagements saw him spend more time outside his Lagos stronghold in 2021, the large number of political leaders who visited him during his recent medical trip abroad tells so much about how influential he still is. He has since embarked on consultations ahead of 2023, plus frequent visits to the Villa, which put him as one of those to look out for in 2022.
Goodluck Jonathan
Like most former presidents, Jonathan would always be a person to look out for, especially in an election year. But his case is unique. Besides the fact that he has been one of the most active former presidents from Africa in the light of the diplomatic missions he has had to undertake since he left office, the unceasing rumour of his defection from the PDP to APC will continue to keep him in the minds of political thinkers and the nation in general. In 2021, Jonathan’s rumoured defection plot began to dominate national discussion shortly after that visit by the APC national leadership and some governors.
Olusegun Obasanjo
Much like Jonathan, ex-president Olusegun Obasanjo has been quite engaged abroad. However, in the last quarter of last year, the former president became more visible and vocal on national issues. Known for courting controversy, Obasanjo will definitely be a person of interest in 2022 as it would be insightful who he supports for the presidency. Having resigned from partisan politics, his residence might be a must-go for contenders.
Ahmed Lawan
Lawan has remained a man of his words as Senate President. He had promised to cooperate and work with the President which his leadership of the Senate has religiously kept to. Under his watch, all requests by President Buhari had received dutiful approval leading to allegations that he had weakened that arm of government and thereby subsumed it in the presidency. Loans approved under his watch have mortgaged the future of unborn Nigerians while rationalising such docility as ensuring harmony and stability of the country.
Bukola Saraki
The immediate past Senate President has been quite involved in strategic and key political engagements in his party, PDP. He has opened up about his ambition to contest the presidency in 2023 and has since begun to meet party leaders accordingly. He had served as chairman of the reconciliation committee of his party. He will certainly be a major personality to look out for in the political space next year as his action will, somewhat, shape the trajectory of his party and the larger polity.
Iyorchia Ayu
As the national chairman of the PDP, Ayu, a former Senate President, the way he steers the ship of the main opposition party will be instructive. He is expected to preside over the party primaries and lead the charge for the party’s return to power in 2023. He said recently that the Buhari administration had failed Nigerians. Ayu said the PDP had remained the most trusted political party since 1999, adding that other parties, including the APC, operate without “clear ideology or coherent programmes”.
Mai Mala Buni
In 2022, the National Chairman of APC Caretaker Extraordinary Convention Planning Committee, Mai Mala Buni, is expected to conduct a crucial national convention to elect new party executives.
Though a good number of Governors still want Buni to continue, it is accepted that he has a critical assignment of ensuring the atmosphere is ripe for a convention following the rumblings that trailed the ward, local government and state congresses.
However, some APC governors still have their minds made up on the conduct of the national convention of the party in February to produce a new set of national officers ahead of its presidential convention. In a letter written by the Director-General of the Progressives Congress Forum, Salihu Lukman, the APC Caretaker/Extraordinary Convention Planning Committee was advised not to renege on the February date.
The letter dated December 16, 2021 signed by Lukman was addressed to Buni. It was titled, “APC and Campaign for New Nigeria.”
“Observers said Bello would be a completely detribalised President if given the opportunity. In his cabinet, Bello has the combination of Yoruba, Igbo, Hausa, Fulani, South-South and others who are working as a team to develop the state
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Ibikunle Amosun
Ahead of the 2023 general elections, the presidential campaign posters of former Governor of Ogun State, Ibikunle Amosun, surfaced recently in Abeokuta, the state capital.
Amosun, who represents Ogun Central at the Senate, is a Chieftain of the APC and the immediate past governor of the state. His presidential campaign banner was conspicuously hung on the popular NNPC Bridge along presidential boulevard way, Oke Mosan, Abeokuta.
The banner showed three images of Amosun clad in Yoruba, Igbo and Hausa attires. A logo with an inscription of one “Oba Agoro” who appeared to be the brain behind the campaign was on the banner.
The inscription reads, “Your voice, your choice, SIA (meaning Senator Ibikunle Amosun) for President.”
A few vehicles with Amosun’s campaign posters were sighted in the Abeokuta metropolis. Amosun is not only very close to President Buhari, he has a good cordial relationship with Buhari’s immediate family members as well as the Emir of Daura.
Kayode Fayemi
He is the Chairman of the Nigeria Governors’ Forum, the college of 36 governors in the country and arguably the second most influential power bloc in the country, after the presidency. However, beyond being the leader of the influential forum, Fayemi is also speculated to be interested in the 2023 presidential race. But he has to deal with the governorship election in his state this year.
Babajide Sanwo-Olu
There are speculations that the Lagos State Governor, Babajide Sanwo-Olu, might be stopped from seeking re-election in 2023.
Lagos, in the 2023 elections, promises an interesting spectacle. Since the nation’s return to civil rule in 1999, Lagos has never abdicated its place for another in terms of pacesetting – politically and development-wise. The speculation is rife now and no longer a big deal amongst the political elite of the state that Sanwo-Olu might be served the Akinwunmi Ambode treatment.
First, he was said to have agreed to an understanding that he would only serve a term. Second, being a Christian, he is said to have been ‘hired’ to serve out the second term of the Christian slot, which Ambode was denied. Unfortunately, that excuse belies logic in all its forms. While it is true that they are both Christians, Sanwo-Olu, from Lagos Central, cannot – politically and strategically – complete the tenure of Ambode, who represented Lagos East.
Third, his returning to office is being seen as likely to unsettle the plan to allegedly drag Tinubu’s son, Seyi, into the political terrain in a capacity not clear or defined yet. As it is now, the amber light is on and except the monolithic leadership of Lagos politics is able to interpret the signs very well and tread cautiously this time, there’s nothing about the much-touted political template in the state that is irreversible. Importantly, too, if the rumoured presidential bid of Tinubu is true, then, the amber light directly flashes in his face. It is yet to be seen how he’d set his house on fire and at the same time, continue to chase a bigger dream on the same turf. The contradictions, without a doubt, speak to his capacity to have a rethink and review the subsisting equation. This will enable him to make the smartest choice in the circumstances.
Yahaya Bello
One of the top contenders seeking to succeed President Buhari on the platform of the ruling APC in 2023 is Governor Yahaya Bello of Kogi State.
Bello’s political support base believes that what Nigeria needs after the expiration of the tenure of President Buhari is a young, energetic and cerebral personality like the Governor of Kogi State. For them, the arguments of zoning should be discountenanced given that no part of the Nigerian Constitution recognises zoning as a precondition for electing competent hands to manage the affairs of Nigeria.
The Bello supporters also believe that his giant strides and achievements in Kogi State since 2015 is a pointer to what he is able to bring to bear if given a shot at the presidency. As the number of presidential hopefuls swells across the country, Bello is also already striking the needed cordial relationship with the media across the board.
Interestingly, the Bello support presidential groups have a wide geographical spread across the six geopolitical zones. Worthy of note is the fact that some Christian groups are also keying into the Kogi State governor’s ambition. This reinforces the understanding that Bello’s political structure cuts across the grassroots, women, youths, religious bodies (Christian/Muslim), professional bodies and student unions across tertiary institutions and even secondary schools.
Observers said Bello would be a completely detribalised President if given the opportunity. In his cabinet, Bello has the combination of Yoruba, Igbo, Hausa, Fulani, South-South and others who are working as a team to develop the state. He has been able to radically unite the people. And he is expected to replicate this if elected as president, especially now that Nigeria appears more divided than ever.
Aminu Tambuwal
The Sokoto State governor is also rumoured to be interested in the top seat come 2023. As such, he will be keen to throw his weight around next year. More so, as chairman of the PDP Governors’ Forum, he will be a significant figure in shaping political decisions both in his party and the larger political spectrum.
Orji Uzor Kalu
Kalu is also not new to the contest for the Nigerian presidency. The chairman of SLOK Holding and media mogul had contested the presidency in 2007 on the platform of Progressive Peoples Alliance, a party he formed. So far, loyalists of the former Abia State governor have been mobilising support for him with one of such groups threatening to sue him if he refuses to contest.
Another group said it was mobilising others for a one-million-man march to persuade him to declare for president in 2023.
The Senate chief whip has also been embarking on consultations and enjoys a long relationship with some of the top former generals in Nigeria.
Anyim Pius Anyim
The former Senate President and Secretary to the Government of the Federation has already made his intentions known. He is one of the few who have openly declared for the presidential seat in 2023. He has since started consultations.
Taking to his Facebook page recently, Anyim wrote, “I met with former President Ibrahim Babangida and former Head of State, General Abdulsalami Abubakar. I consulted with them on my intention to contest for the presidency of our beloved country. Both leaders are rich in vision and deep in the grasp of our history. They were generous with their wise counsels.
“I am further emboldened and convinced that I can make significant contributions in our collective quest to consolidate democracy, build a stronger and more united Nigeria. I feel very enriched and invigorated. Long live Nigeria.”
Kingsley Moghalu
On June 1, 2021, Moghalu was the first aspirant to openly declare his ambition to be president in 2023. A former presidential candidate of Young Progressive Party in 2019, a lawyer, author, former United Nations official, who also served as deputy governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria, Moghalu is perceived, in some quarters, as a new face of politics, drawing from his robust academic and diaspora base. Also, having pitched his political tent with African Democratic Congress which is not one of the major parties, he would hope to galvanise the neo-progressive political movement, the business community and the savvy young population.
Sam Ohuabunwa
“The speculation is rife now and no longer a big deal amongst the political elite of the state that Sanwo-Olu might be served the Akinwunmi Ambode treatment. First, he was said to have agreed to an understanding that he would only serve a term. Second, being a Christian, he is said to have been ‘hired’ to serve out the second term of the Christian slot, which Ambode was denied
“
Mazi Samuel Ohuabunwa is renowned as a businessman and founder/former CEO of Neimeth Pharmaceutical. He was also a former president of the Pharmaceutical Society of Nigeria. He, just like Moghalu, has formally declared his intention to run for president. Although he is a staunch member of the PDP, Ohuabunwa, is also the convener of the New Nigeria Group, a non-partisan group dedicated to changing the Nigerian narrative.
A recipient of three national awards by three different presidents, namely Olusegun Obasanjo (2001); Goodluck Jonathan (2011) and Muhammadu Buhari (2018), the head of the Ohuabunwa dynasty hopes to strike a chord with all the critical stakeholders in the voting demography. But whether the most influential power bloc in his party, PDP, will back him is another matter.
Nyesom Wike
He is certainly one of the most influential governors in the polity today and a key powerbroker in PDP. Having succeeded in effecting a leadership change in the PDP national leadership, the Rivers State governor has become that guy that all senior and ranking PDP political actors must consult or feel his pulse on party issues ahead of 2023. More so, with rumours of his eye on the presidency, either as president or vice president, he will be a critical stakeholder in the 2023 discussion next year.
Peter Obi
The former Anambra governor and the former vice-presidential candidate is also being linked to the 2023 presidential race even though, like many others, he has yet to publicly declare for it.
However, his political engagements in recent times project him as someone who is not ready to take the back seat ahead of 2023. This is more so that his emergence as running mate to Atiku in 2019 took many pundits by surprise. Now, he is seen as one of the deft players in the political space.
Abiodun Oyebanji
Come Saturday, January 22, 2022, the battle for the destiny of Ekiti State, will kick off with the primary elections of the APC. The primary election will decide who picks the flag of the ruling party for the governorship election which has been fixed for June 18, 2022 by INEC.
Oyebanji, former secretary to the state government has just tendered his resignation, as he revealed his ambition to contest in the coming governorship election in the state. He is a former university lecturer and had previously served as chief of staff during the administration of Niyi Adebayo. He was also the Commissioner for Budget and Economic Planning during Fayemi’s first term. To many politicians in Ekiti State, Oyebanji is seen as a political interloper, who has in all his political life been leaning on godfather to float. It is believed that supporting Oyebanji would mean Governor Fayemi is ceding the control of state power to former governor Adebayo, who has been the political life-support for Oyebanji, a la carte. But recent revelations have confirmed that there is more to his selection than meets the ordinary eyes. There are some undercurrents, suggesting that the wife of the governor, Erelu Bisi Fayemi, deliberately set up the machinery to displace her husband in the political power game in the state by tipping Oyebanji for the number one job.
The move, which is already tearing the Tokantokan group apart, has pitched a majority of the caucus against the governor, who has been found to have ceded the leadership of the party affairs to his wife, as a result of inadequate attention to governance.
This has further polarised the Ekiti APC and decimated it to the Erelu Bisi Fayemi block supporting Oyebanji, the SWAGA block led by former minister of State for Works, Dayo Adeyeye, the Kayode Fayemi block, which is yet to endorse any aspirant and a floating block known as ‘Kogba group’, expecting a yet to be identified credible aspirant to support. Oyebanji’s resignation has removed the veil on who has been the de facto ruler of Ekiti State, all along. Erelu has been found to be more politically on ground than her husband and she is taking full advantage of that.
It is believed that Erelu is nursing a Senatorial ambition to represent Ekiti North Senatorial district come 2023. She is very ambitious, aggressive, and determined to unseat Olubunmi Adetunbi from the senate; a seat most political observers believe should be reserved for Fayemi, if his planned presidential ambition does not sail through.
