THE outcome of the September 19 governorship election in Edo State will be shaped essentially by the number of votes the All Progressives Congress and the Peoples Democratic Party are able to lock down in each of the three senatorial zones.
The fine details about how Osagie Ize-Iyamu of the APC and Governor Godwin Obaseki of the PDP will perform constitute a matter of strategy.
Whatever strategies both party may have adopted, the next few hours will determine whether or not, they were utilitarian and result-oriented.
Analysts contend that whoever is going to win the governorship poll must secure an emphatic victory, with a wide margin of win in the Edo South Senatorial District, which has the highest number of voters population.
Incidentally, both Ize-Iyamu and Obaseki are from the zone, which indicates that the contest in the zone, if both are on top of their strategy and game, may be down to the wire.
But, so many local considerations and winning issues will come into play here to determine where the pendulum swings.
In Edo North Senatorial District with the next voter population figure, there are feelers that the election may be a contest between former Governor Adams Oshiomhole and his former crony, Phillip Shaibu, who is the deputy governor and running mate to Obaseki.
Here, Oshiomhole is said to enjoy a cult following by the people of the zone in appreciation of what he did for them while in the saddle for eight years.
Some people are said to be sympathetic to Oshiomhole over what they perceive as his betrayal by Phillip Shaibu.
The Oshiomhole phenomenon, acting in concert with other political influencers in the zone, may cause a voting effect in favour of the APC. But Shaibu, a strong grassroots mobiliser is also very much on ground and will give a good fight. It is close here.
In Edo Central, which is the traditional stronghold of the PDP, the voter population is the least.
However, there are feelers of possibility of a shocker in Edo Central as it happened in 2012 when Oshiomhole won his re-election with Osagie Ize-Iyamu as Director General of his Governorship Campaign Organisation.
Bookmakers are however predicting a neck-and-neck contest in Edo Central, given the current dynamics.
On the larger scale of factors and considerations, Edo South and Edo North are largely going to decide the winner of the governorship election between Ize-Iyamu and Obaseki.
Below is the analysis/ breakdown of Edo voter population on local government basis.
Edo South is the dominant district in terms of registered voters and PVC collection.
Edo South has 1,281,414 registered voters, according to YIAGA, quoting INEC figures.
In the zone, 78.1 per cent of the PVCs have been collected.
Conversely, Edo North has 564,122 registered voters; 84 per cent of the PVCs have been collected.
In Edo Central, the total registered voters is 364,998; out of which 74.4 per cent PVCs have been collected.
Edo South
Oredo:
Registered voters 313,553;
PVCs collected 240,197
Ikpoba/Okha:
Registered voters 315,410;
PVCs collected 214,822
Egor:
Registered voters 219,832;
PVCs collected 158,817
Ovia Northeast:
Registered voters 143,009;
PVCs collected 113,167
Ovia Southwest:
Registered voters 96,409;
PVCs collected 77,468
Orhiomwon:
Registered voters 118,672;
PVCs collected 102,739
Uhunmwode:
Registered voters 74,529;
PVCs collected 57,290
Edo North
Etsako West:
Registered voters 160,137;
PVCs collected 128,188
Etsako East:
Registered voters 81,639;
PVCs collected 67,715
Etsako Central:
Registered voters 84,245;
PVCs collected 42,042
Akoko Edo:
Registered voters 119,254;
PVCs collected 115,343
Owan West:
Registered voters 61,193;
PVCs collected 46,245
Owan East:
Registered voters 91,841;
PVCs collected 77,827
Edo Central
Esan West:
Registered voters 99,983;
PVCs collected 83,467
Esan Central:
Registered voters 50,058;
PVCs collected 42,042
Esan Northeast:
Registered voters 84,245;
PVCs collected 66,790
Esan Southeast:
Registered voters 76,842;
PVCs collected 58,802
Igueben:
Registered voters 46,828;
PVCs collected 34,988