Inflation, exchange rate to decline in 2024, trade balance hits N18.8bn in Q3, says CBN

  • NGX All-Share Index edges higher, up by 0.22%, investors gain N85.39bn

BY FESTUS OKOROMADU, ABUJA

The Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria, Olayemi Cardoso, has assured that both inflation and exchange rates will decline drastically in 2024.

Cardoso, who disclosed this in Abuja during a presentation to the National Assembly joint committee on Banking, Insurance and other Financial Institutions on Thursday, also projected less revenue from oil exports in the fiscal year.

He further disclosed that total trade from Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market stood at N18.804 billion in the third quarter of 2023.

Cardoso also told members of the joint committee of the National Assembly that the outlook for the domestic economy in Nigeria for 2024 is very positive, insisting that both inflation and exchange rates would withstand fluctuating pressures on them and get stabilized.

“The outlook for the domestic economy remains positive and is expected to maintain the positive trajectory for 2024.

“Inflation pressures may persist in the short-term but it is expected to decline in 2024. Exchange rate pressures are also expected to reduce significantly with the smooth functioning of foreign exchange market,” he said.

He specifically informed the committee members that the unification of the exchange rate windows in June 2023 has ushered in a new approach to the management of the exchange rate, aimed at reducing arbitrage, rent seeking behaviour and speculation in the market.

“The policy aims at creating a market where the demand and supply of foreign exchange determines the exchange rate.

“The premium has narrowed and our focus on increasing the autonomous FX supply would lead to more stability and further narrowing of the premium.

“Total trade in the third quarter of 2023 stood at N18.804.68 billion. Exports were valued at N10.346.60 billion while total imports stood at N8.457.68 billion. This represents a positive trade balance, which would lead to increase of the external reserves,” he said.

The CBN boss however noted that due to some prevailing domestic factors, less revenue would be earned from oil exports in 2024.

“We expect less revenue from oil exports due to the production limit of 1.78mbpd in 2024. OPEC approved quota for Nigeria is 1.8mbpd, which is higher than the 2024 budget assumption.

“However, the country’s production has been below these thresholds. The budget benchmark for 2023 was 1.69mbpd, but the highest level of production during the year was about 1.35mbpd in Q3 of 2023.

“The reasons for the underperformance of the oil production target include, crude oil theft and pipeline vandalization, production shut-ins and divestments by major oil companies,” he said.

Earlier, the Chairman of the joint committee, Senator Tokunbo Abiru, said the interactive session was organized for statutory briefing by the CBN in line with extant laws.

The co-Chairman of the committee, Bahir Bello El-Rufai, in his remarks, commended the CBN governor and the entire management team on measures being put in place to stabilize the economy generally.

NGX All-Share Index edges higher, up by 0.22%, investors gain by N85.39bn

The Nigerian stock market sustained the bullish runs on Thursday with a 0.22 percent upward movement in the All Share Index to a new high of 72,455.83 points, primarily driven by the banking index’s bullish momentum.

Strong buying interest in key stocks such as STERLINGNG, ACCESSCORP and UBA contributed to the positive performance, resulting in a 0.22 percent increase in the market cap of listed equities, reaching N39.65 trillion.

Despite having more losers (27) than gainers (26), the year-to-date return stood at 41.37 percent, with investors realizing gains worth N85.4 billion.

Trading activity on the NGX saw varied outcomes, with traded volume increasing by 3.09 percent to 446.58 million units, and the total deals for the day rising by 2.93 percent to 6,845 trades. However, the total traded value decreased by 10.16 percent to N7.26 billion.

Thursday’s gainers included INFINITY, JOHNHOLT, IKEJAHOTEL, DAARCOMM, and ETRANZACT, with their share prices rising by 9.83 percent, 9.73 percent, 9.20 percent, 7.69 percent, and 7.69 percent, respectively.

On the downside, RTBRISCOE, UPDC REIT, MBENEFIT, and OMATEK experienced adverse price movements, leading the laggards for the day as their share prices declined by 9.84%, 9.78 percent, 9.43 percent, 7.79 percent, and 7.69 percent, respectively.

Across the sectoral front, investor sentiment appeared positive, with four out of the five sectors closing bullish on Thursday.

The banking index led the gainers chart with a 1.90 percent increase, followed by the Industrial, Oil & Gas, and Consumer Goods indexes, which recorded mild gains of 0.02 percent, 0.02 percent, and 0.01 percent, respectively.

Conversely, the Insurance sector was the only decliner, down by 1.94 percent due to selloffs in the sector. At the session’s close, ACCESSCORP emerged as the most traded security by volume and value, with 77.25 million units traded in 598 trades, amounting to N1.76 billion.