Inflation records sixth consecutive increase to 22.79% in June

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  • Highest increases in core inflation recorded in costs of Passenger Transport – NBS

BY BAMIDELE FAMOOFO

Nigeria’s headline inflation increased for the sixth consecutive month, albeit lower than expectations of experts, increasing by 38bps to 22.79 percent year on year in June as against 22.41 percent in May.

The outturn is 179bps lower than Cordros’ estimate (24.58% y/y) and 21bps lower than Bloomberg’s median consensus estimate (23.00% y/y).

Likewise, on a month-on-month basis, headline inflation rose by 19bps to 2.13% (May 1.94% m/m).

Figures released by the National Bureau of Statistics on Monday showed that food inflation advanced by 43bps to 25.25 percent y/y (May: 24.82% y/y).

According to the NBS, the rise in food prices was due to increased costs of Oil and fat, Bread and cereals, Fish, Potatoes, Yam and other tubers, Fruits, Meat, Vegetable, Milk, Cheese, and Eggs. On a month-on-month basis, food inflation increased by 2.40 percent, relative to the 2.19 percent m/m recorded in the previous month.

Likewise, the core inflation rose by 22bps to 20.27 percent y/y (May: 20.06% y/y). The highest increases were recorded in prices of Passenger Transport by Air, Gas, Vehicles, Spare Parts, Liquid Fuel, Fuels and Lubricants for Personal Transport Equipment, Medical Services, Passenger Transport by Road etc. Meanwhile, the core index eased by 7bps to 1.74% m/m in June 2023 compared to the previous month (1.81% m/m).

On a year-on-year basis, the urban inflation rate in June 2023 was 24.33 percent; this was 5.23 percent points higher compared to the 19.09 percent recorded in June 2022. On a month-on-month basis, the urban inflation rate was 2.31 percent in June 2023, which was 0.21 percent points higher compared to May 2023 (2.09%).

The corresponding twelve month average for the urban inflation rate was 22.38 percent in June 2023. This was 5.30 percent points higher compared to the 17.09 percent reported in June 2022.

The rural inflation rate in June 2023 was 21.37 percent on a year-on-year basis; this was 3.25 percent points higher compared to the 18.13 percent recorded in June 2022.

On a month-on-month basis, the rural inflation rate in June 2023 was 1.96 percent, up by 0.16 percent compared to May 2023 (1.80%). The corresponding twelve months average for the rural inflation rate in June 2023 was 20.76 percent. This was 4.75 percent points higher compared to the 16.02 percent recorded in June 2022.

In June 2023, all items inflation rate on a year-on-year basis was highest in Lagos (25.75%), Ondo (25.40%), Kogi (25.23%), while Borno (20.44%), Zamfara (20.93%) and Ekiti (21.06%) recorded the slowest rise in headline inflation on a year-on-year basis.

On a month-on-month basis, however, June 2023 recorded the highest increases in Ogun (3.21%), Plateau (3.05%), Jigawa (3.00%), while Zamfara (1.40%), Delta (1.42%) and Rivers (1.54%) recorded the slowest rise on month-on-month inflation.

Food inflation on a year-on-year basis was highest in Kwara (30.80%), Lagos (30.37%), and Kogi (29.71%), while Zamfara (21.38%), Sokoto (21.60%) and Borno (21.75%) recorded the slowest rise in Food inflation on a year-on-year basis.

On a month-on-month basis, however, June 2023 Food inflation was highest in Kwara (3.82%), Abuja (3.64%), and Ogun (3.56%), while Rivers (0.75%), Zamfara (1.33%) and Adamawa (1.47%) recorded the slowest rise in Food inflation on a month-on-month basis.