BY BRIGHT JACOB
The November 11 governorship election in Kogi State will see Dino Melaye of the People’s Democratic Party squaring off with Ahmed Usman Ododo of the All Progressives Congress, in a must-win political scramble for the right to be called the new landlord of Lugard House, the Kogi State seat of government.
For Melaye, this election will be a test of his popularity in the “Confluence State” which has seen the ruling party, the APC, establishing dominance and consolidating its hold on power because of the developmental strides of the incumbent governor, Yahaya Bello.
Apart from the two main gladiators, there is also a lively list of other candidates from various political parties who also want to etch their names in Kogi State’s political history.
Notable names are Adejoh Okeme of the Labour Party and Yakubu Ajaka of the Social Democratic Party, who, incidentally, was a former protagonist of Governor Yahaya Bello but fell out with the governor after he was disqualified from participating in the APC governorship primary election.
He moved to the SDP and now claims that Governor Bello’s loyalists are with him.
Analysts say that the candidate of the PDP, Melaye, must bring his A-game to stand a chance of toppling the powerhouse that is the APC in Kogi State.
In their views, the election will not be a walk in the park for the “controversial” PDP candidate.
Other analysts have equally pointed at the back-to-back-to-back losses Melaye suffered in the last three elections he contested before he beat all comers to clinch the PDP primary ticket in April 2023, and opined that the losses are not only ominous hints that his quest to be governor could also fall flat, but that his political fortune was fast declining.
Melaye was originally with the PDP but he defected to the APC in 2015. In 2019, however, he retraced his steps back to his old party and had big plans to transmute into a governor. Unfortunately for him, he lost the Kogi State PDP governorship primary ticket to Musa Wada in September 2019. In fact, Melaye came a distant fourth in that contest.
After the loss, Melaye then tried to make a big splash with a return to the Senate, but in November 2019, he lost to Smart Adeyemi of the APC in the Kogi West senatorial district rerun election. Melaye rejected the outcome of the election, claiming he was robbed and that his life was in harm’s way.
Melaye’s opponent, however, had other ideas. Perhaps, because he was verbally “bloodied” and “bruised” by his rival during the campaign, Adeyemi had said that Melaye was not a good representation of the people of Kogi West.
Not finished, Adeyemi had added, “I am sure that no Nigerian would want to have somebody like Dino as a Senator. May Nigeria never have the kind of Dino as a Senator of the Federal Republic of Nigeria.”
Not about to cower in embarrassment to Adeyemi’s damning utterances and fancying his chances at another shot at the senatorial seat in 2023, Melaye once again threw his hat in the ring and contested the election.
During the PDP primaries in May 2022, which went into a runoff after a stalemate, Melaye lost the PDP Kogi West Senatorial District ticket to Tajudeen Yusuf. Strangely, Melaye blamed “gang-up” against him by members of his party for the loss.
Making an assessment of Melaye and his chances at the polls, a Port Harcourt-based chartered accountant, Ifeoma Ogbonna, who said she follows Melaye on social media said of the politician, “I see some of Melaye’s posts on Instagram and I must confess that a lot of them are funny, especially when he sings to mock his foes and detractors.
“Melaye is a former senator. He had at some point also been a member of the House of Representatives and this election will not be his first shot at the Kogi State governorship seat. He has accomplished a lot politically.”
Ogbonna, however, added that the election will be a whole new ballgame and that Melaye would not stand a chance against the candidate of the APC.
“Next month’s governorship election in Kogi State will be a whole new ballgame. It will not be a comedy show and neither will it be a contest to determine who the funniest politician is.
“It will be serious business and Melaye has to use every trick in the book in order to stand a chance against the APC in Kogi State. But I don’t think that will be possible,” she said.
Melaye’s supporters adamantly say he will not be contesting in the election just to make up the numbers. They insist that he still packs a punch, even though he had been called mouthy, controversial and a comedian.
Therefore, with eleven days to the off-season election, Melaye, 49, a former spokesperson of the presidential candidate of the PDP in the February 25 presidential election, Atiku Abubakar, will have his hands full trying to upstage Usman Ododo, 41, a former Auditor General of Local Government in Kogi State, and the odds are already heavily staked against Melaye.
Before his victory at the PDP primary, there was a salvo of criticisms from his “former friend” and erstwhile governor of Rivers State , Nyesom Wike, who is also the current Minister of the Federal Capital Territory, Abuja.
Indeed, back in April when the G-5 brouhaha was still making headlines, Wike, who was the then-sitting Governor of Rivers State, had warned against any attempt to manipulate the Kogi State PDP delegates’ list to favour Melaye.
The former G-5 leader said that changing the list to favour Melaye would cause more crises in the PDP.
He also said that gifting the primary ticket to an undeserving candidate was like planning to fail in the election as Melaye did not have what it takes to become governor of Kogi State.
“Ogbonna, however, added that the election will be a whole new ballgame and that Melaye would not stand a chance against the candidate of the APC”
“Tomorrow, you (the PDP) will begin to cry that you were rigged, but you’re already rigging yourself by changing the delegates list to favour someone who could not win the election,” Wike had also retorted.
Melaye, however, hit back at Wike for discrediting his gubernatorial ambition, stating that he was more qualified to be governor than the Rivers State politics godfather.
The embattled Melaye had also rubbished the potency of the support Wike would give, explaining that his estranged friend did not support Ademola Adeleke of Osun State but that the “dancing Governor” went on to win the polls in Osun State in 2022.
Melaye also revealed that in 2019 when he contested the governorship seat, Wike saw “competence” and “capacity” and supported him all the way.
Melaye said “psychotic disorderliness” was the reason for the FCT Minister’s present stance.
Some indigenes of Kogi State have said that Melaye’s worries would not be limited only to Wike’s interference in Kogi State politics.
According to one of them, Isiaka Abdulkareem, the infrastructural development of the state by the incumbent governor will stand his anointed candidate, Usman Ododo, in good stead for the election.
Abdulkareem’s submission may not be unconnected with some of the landmark achievements of the Bello’s administration in the state.
For instance, the construction of Grade Interchange Flyover at Ganaja Junction in Lokoja, the Kogi State capital; the well-equipped Reference Hospital in Okene as well as the GYB Model Science Secondary School, Adankolo, Lokoja, are part of Bello’s footprints in the state.
These accomplishments and many more scattered across the state is the reason why Tinubu and the APC governors, during the official flag-off of the Kogi State APC Governorship Campaign, had urged Kogites not to allow “strangers” deceive them and that they should hold onto the APC which, according to them, is the tested and trusted party.
Asked to expatiate on Melaye’s chances at the polls, a political analyst, Reginald Anene, said even though he agrees that Melaye has got the chance, he would not be victorious at the polls.
Anene, who noted that trying to win, would be an “uphill battle” for Melaye also said the tide was already against the former senator because of his failed attempts to return to the Senate.
“The truth is that every pundit will tell you that everybody has got a chance. For instance, if you were to put a Barcelona Football Club and Enyimba to play, people would tell you that it’ll be a straight win for Barcelona FC, but pundits will tell you that there’s always a chance that Enyimba could win the match.
“The reality on the ground is that it will be an uphill battle for Melaye.
“Recall that the same Melaye did not get the senatorial seat for his district, rather he lost his bid to return to the Senate in his party’s primary. Yes, he lost his senatorial ambition prior to now and in his party’s primary, in his attempt to return to the Senate, he also lost. The tide is already against him,” Anene declared.
Anene also said Melaye would have to deal with Tinubu’s influence and popularity in Kogi State and the fact that the Kogi PDP standard-bearer had stepped on many toes “when he was busy making skits on social media.”
About Wike and whether his scathing criticism would have an adverse effect on Melaye’s political ambition, Anene said, “The way politics goes, it is such that statements by some influential people can have far-reaching effects on you.
“I believe so much that Wike will be involved in this election. I believe that somehow he will have a role to play. He will definitely want to be like a spoiler.
“And, obviously, if you look at Wike’s body language, you will know that his spirit, soul and body seem to be with the APC, or let me be specific, with President Tinubu, and so you do not want to have these titans (Wike and Tinubu) against you going into any election.
“This is the truth, and all these factors are going to weigh against Melaye.
“So, the man has got a chance, but the election is going to be in this order; the APC will win, followed by the PDP and then other parties,” Anene concluded.
A chieftain of the PDP, Anselm Ojezua, however disagreed with Anene’s position.
Ojezua said that Melaye’s chances at the polls were bright. He added that Melaye’s personality and pedigree would distinguish him from the other contestants.
Ojezua also said that “the seeming division within the APC” because of Ajaka’s faction which is now flying the flag of the SDP would give the PDP an edge.
“I think Melaye’s chances are bright. One, because of his personality as a very known politician in the area. He has contested elections in the past and won.
“And I think that the advantage he will have is the seeming division within the APC itself, and this is because a breakaway faction of the APC is flying the flag of the SDP.
“So, if you dissipate the votes of the APC substantially enough, it will give PDP an edge. That is how I arrived at my conclusion,” he said.
Ojezua, who is also a renowned lawyer, said that Wike’s evaluation of Melaye was borne out of malice because the latter did not support the presidential ambition of the former.
On the argument that the performance of the outgoing Governor of Kogi State would garner sufficient votes for Usman Ododo at the polls, Ojezua said, “Honestly, I don’t know what performance they are referring to. So, I am not able to comment on that.”
Presented with the allegation in some quarters that Melaye was “rewarded” with the PDP ticket because he had been the “attack dog” of the PDP, Ojezua disagreed with the notion, and reminded those who thought so that Melaye got the PDP ticket because he had been in the limelight since 1999.
“I think that is a very childish way of reaching the conclusion (that he is an attack dog). If Melaye was to be an unknown quantity, then I would give some level of credence to that assumption.
“But Melaye has been in the limelight since 1999, really. If you remember, Melaye started as a member of the House of Representatives and he worked his way to the Senate.
“So, rather than be a reward, I think that Melaye’s personality is, in my opinion, enough for him.
“And everybody knows Melaye. Some like him, some don’t, clearly. But he is well known in Nigeria. He doesn’t need to be rewarded. He has enough clout in Kogi, particularly in PDP, to be able to get it (ticket),” Ojezua said.
Ojezua also said that those who said Melaye had stepped on many toes and is loquacious were simply the ones who have been at the receiving end of his
outspokenness.
