Lagos bye-election: More analysts predict easy win for APC, cite lingering PDP crisis

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Uba Group

AYO ESAN

THE Independent National Electoral Commission has fixed December 5, 2020 as the date for a bye-election to fill the vacant seat of the Senator representing Lagos East in the upper chamber of the National Assembly.

The election, which was earlier scheduled for Saturday October 31, 2020, was shifted, owing to the violence and insecurity occasioned by the hijack of #EndSARS protest by hoodlums all over the country.

Lagos East comprises of five Local Government Areas, namely: Somolu, Ikorodu, Ibeju Lekki, Epe and Kosofe.

The senatorial position became vacant following the demise of Senator Bayo Osinowo, popularly known as “Pepper”.

Osinowo died on June 15, 2020 as a result of COVID-19 related health issues.

INEC has listed 12 political parties and candidates for the bye election. They are: Muyiwa Adebanjo (AA); Mercy Adeoye, (AAC); John Kome ( ADC ); Adebowale Ogunlaru (ADP); Adetokunbo Abiru (APC); Olusola Babatope (APM); Adijat Lawal ( NNPP); Olakunle Adisa (NRM); Saheed Aluko (SDP); Taiwo Temitope ( YPP); Florence Trautman (LP) and Babatunde Gbadamosi (PDP).

Political watchers and analysts, however, believe the race is mainly between the PDP and the APC.

“Going into the election, the Peoples Democratic Party and the All Progressives Congress are the two major parties that are really in the race. Other participating political parties may just be adding to the numbers,” John Ajayi, a Public Affairs commentator told The Point.

Our correspondent, who visited the five local government areas that make up the senatorial district, observed that political activities were on the front burner.

Campaigns are mostly house to house with less gathering of people for a rally in a spot, according to findings.

Posters and bill boards of major candidates also adorned the nooks and crannies of the senatorial district, it was observed.

Carrying APC banner in the election is the former Managing Director of Polaris Bank, Tokunbo Abiru, while a renowned estate developer, Babatunde Gbadamosi, will contest the election on the platform of the PDP.

While Abiru emerged as the APC candidate through affirmation, Gbadamosi went through a keenly contested primary.

Political analysts and watchers of political developments in the South West believe that the two candidates are eminently qualified to occupy the senatorial position, based on their qualifications, requisite experience in politics and their antecedents.

However, political parties on which banners they are contesting would play huge roles in their success in the election, analysts said.

Ordinarily, analysts believe barring any upset, the election should be won easily by the APC candidate claiming that the PDP in Lagos, in recent time, has not only been weakened but is still trying to resolve its crisis.

They believe that even on a good day, PDP is not expected to give the APC any serious fight in an election in Lagos.

However, the PDP, which is still swimming in the glory of its victory in the recent Edo Governorship Election and a good performance in the recent Ondo gubernatorial election, has vowed that it will repeat the same feat in both Lagos East bye election and the Kosofe 11 State constituency election.

The Kosofe 11 State Constituency also became vacant following the death of Hon.Tunde Buraimoh in July this year. The two elections will hold same day, on Saturday, December 5, 2020.

Abiru is a former Lagos State Commissioner for Finance. He served between 2011 and 2013 under Raji Fashola’s (SAN) administration. He voluntarily resigned the Commissionership position to return to his banking job.

His father, Hon. Justice O.A. Abiru, represented Ikorodu in the Legislature between 1979 and 1983. He has been credited as being the one who saved a crashing Skye Bank that later metarmorphosed into Polaris Bank and is currently doing well.

A graduate of the Lagos State University, Abiru is carrying over 30 years experience in private practice into the public service. Known as egg head, Abiru’s emergence as a senator on December 5, 2020 may be the beginning of a laudable political career for “an identified talent”.

Gbadamosi, born on October 15, 1967, is a businessman, real estate developer and the Chairman/CEO of Red brick Homes International Limited, the renowned developers of the iconic Amen Estate in Ibeju Lekki Area of Lagos.

A graduate of Lagos State University between 1986 and 1989, Gbadamosi was the Lagos State Gubernatorial candidate of ADP in the 2019 election.

Speaking on the forthcoming bye election , a Lagos-based Public Affairs Annalyst, Tunde Muraina, said the APC would definitely win the election.

“PDP though has a good candidate in Gbadamosi but it lacks the structure to defeat APC in the election,” Muraina said.

Since the two candidates still have time to campaign and reach out to the electorate, and given the fact that 24 hours is a long time in politics, one needs to keep an open mind on how the two candidates will fare in the election.

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