BY FESTUS OKOROMADU
The National Bureau of Statistics says Nigeria’s economy grew at the end of the third quarter ended September 30, 2023 as the country’s gross domestic product GDP rose by 2.54 percent year-on-year in real terms to N19.44 trillion during the period.
This was contained in the latest GDP report published by the NBS and released last weekend.
The growth rate marks an improvement over the corresponding period in 2022 which grew by 2.25 percent and the preceding quarter of 2023 up by 2.51 percent.
Economic analysts say the development poses a positive trajectory for Nigeria as well as indicative of the economy’s resilience and its ability to rebound from challenges.
It is also the strongest number on record so far in 2023 amid election jitters and the impact of the various government reforms.
In nominal terms, the aggregate GDP for Q3 2023 inched further to N60.7 trillion and eclipses the parallel figure of N52.3 trillion from the third quarter of 2022, translating to a striking year-on-year nominal expansion of 16.08 percent.
This figure speaks of a significant surge in the nominal economic value during this interval, revealing a noteworthy upward trajectory.
According to the report, the standout performance of various economic sectors was central to this economic trajectory.
Nevertheless, the Services sector emerged as the principal growth catalyst during the third quarter, exhibiting an impressive expansion of 3.99 percent.
This sector not only contributed significantly to the overall GDP but also demonstrated its pivotal role in driving economic activity.
The Services sector’s 52.70 percent share in the aggregate GDP underscores its dominance and influence in shaping the country’s economic landscape.
Zooming further into the sectoral echelons that have driven growth of Nigeria’s real output during the review period, the Agriculture sector, alongside the services sector, contributed to the positive momentum, registering a growth rate of 1.30 percent.
While this represents a slight dip from the previous year’s figure, it underscores the sector’s continued role in supporting economic growth.
Similarly, the Industry sector, after facing a notable contraction of 8.00 percent in Q3 2022, showcased resilience with a growth rate of 0.46% in Q3 2023.
This recovery signals positive shifts within the industrial landscape and aligns with broader economic stabilization efforts.
On the contrary, the Industry sector paints a contrasting picture as it experienced a contraction of 1.94 percent in the second quarter of 2023, albeit less severe than the minus 2.30 percent recorded in the corresponding period of the preceding year. Experts are of the view that while negative growth raises concerns, the mitigated decline signals a certain degree of stabilization within the sector.
“In nominal terms, the aggregate GDP for Q3 2023 inched further to N60.7 trillion and eclipses the parallel figure of N52.3 trillion from the third quarter of 2022.”
Meanwhile, a cursory analysis in the slices of the GDP pie that these sectors contributed, it becomes evident that both Agriculture and the Industry sectors have recovered from their slumps as was reported in Q2, and paints a positive picture of a resilient and evolving economy when compared to the same timeframe in 2022.
Elsewhere, the oil sector’s retarded growth conundrum waned gradually as it contributed 5.48 percent to the total real GDP in Q3 2023, down from the figure recorded in the corresponding period of 2022 and up from the preceding quarter, where it contributed 5.66 percent and 5.34 percent respectively.
On a year over year analysis, the sector’s real growth was at a negative of 0.85 percent in Q3 ’23 indicating an increase of 21.83 percent points relative to the rate recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2022 which was minus 22.67 percent.
Growth also increased by 12.58 percent points when compared to Q2 2023 which was minus 13.43 percent. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, the oil sector recorded a growth rate of 12.47 percent in Q3 2023.
During the period, Nigeria recorded an average daily oil production of 1.45 million barrels per day, higher than the daily average production of 1.20mbpd recorded in the same quarter of 2022 by 0.25mbpd and higher than the second quarter of 2023 production volume of 1.22 mbpd by 0.23mbpd.
This comes on the back of an abating level of pipeline vandalism and the menace of oil theft as well as the phased implementation of the Petroleum Industry Act.
For the non-oil sector, it grew by 2.75 percent in real terms in Q3 ’23, lower by 1.52 percent from Q3’22 and down by 0.84% in Q2 ’23.
The principal drivers of the non-oil sector were the telecommunication, financial institutions, trade, crop production, the food, beverage and tobacco, construction and real estate sectors.
The contribution of the non-oil sector in real terms was 94.52 percent in Q2 ’23, higher than the share recorded in the third quarter of 2022 which was 94.34 percent and lower than the second quarter of 20 23 recorded as 94.66 percent.
