Nigeria’s real GDP grew by 2.98% y/y in Q1 24

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Recent data from the National Bureau of Statistics revealed that the domestic economy sustained its positive growth momentum in the first quarter of 2014, as the real GDP grew by 2.98 percent year-on-year as against 3.46 percent in the fourth quarter in 2023.

The growth outturn is 10bps higher than Cordros’ estimate (+2.88% y/y) and 51bps lower than Bloomberg’s median consensus (+3.49% y/y) estimate.

According to the GDP breakdown provided, the oil sector remained positive, albeit slowed to 5.70 percent in Q1-24 (Q4-23: +12.11% y/y), amid a 0.9 percent y/y increase in average crude oil production in Q1-24 (1.54mb/d vs. Q4-23 1.53mb/d | Q1-23: 1.53mb/d).

Consequently, the oil sector contributed 6.38 percent to the total GDP (Q4-23: 4.70%) during the review period.

Similarly, the non-oil sector grew slower by 2.80 percent y/y in Q1-24 (Q3-23: +3.07% y/y).

Accordingly, the non-oil sector contributed 93.62 percent to the total GDP (vs 95.30% in Q4-23).

From a sectoral perspective, Agriculture GDP slowed by 0.18 percent y/y (Q4-23: +2.10% y/y), Industries GDP moderated by 2.19 percent y/y (Q4-23: +3.86% y/y), while Services GDP increased to 4.32 percent y/y (Q4-23: +3.98% y/y).

In terms of contributions, Services, Agriculture, and Industries had a total of 58.04 percent, 21.07 percent and 20.89 percent of overall output growth, respectively.