Nigeria’s ruling party, the All Progressives Congress, will have its work cut out for it to win the 2027 general elections, no thanks to some opposition parties waiting in the wings to ease the ruling power out of power in the coming election.
The ambitious parties, including the People’s Democratic Party, the Labour Party, the New Nigeria Peoples Party, will flex their muscles in the election that analysts say will reshape the political configuration of Nigeria forever.
Apart from the aforementioned parties, however, there are a “new” group of parties that have no vested interest in maintaining the status quo, but want to make their presence felt in the political ring, after all, the saying that the more the merrier in politics has not been lost on them.
The parties are the Social Democratic Party, African Democratic Congress, African Action Congress and Young Progressives Party, and they have all given the impression that they are spoiling for a fight in 2027 and will not use their party logos on ballot papers just to make up the numbers.
These “hungry” parties are, therefore, waiting to make a mark where the traditional opposition parties have been found wanting and even more impressive is that they have insisted on not participating in the elections to later make concessions that would keep them sidelined.
Moreover, the SDP, ADC, AAC and YPP, all want to improve on their 2023 general elections standings by taking their performances in the coming poll up a notch. This is so that they can become the darling parties of the Nigerian electorate.
Luckily for them, their “big brother” opposition parties, namely the PDP, LP and NNPP, are in disarray. Each one has its own peculiar leadership crisis.
And their most prominent presidential aspirants have been striking a lot of discordant, and sometimes, confusing tunes lately concerning the formation of a coalition that has so far refused to grow beyond the embryonic stage.
Atiku Abubakar of the PDP, Peter Obi of the LP and Rabiu Kwankwaso of the NNPP have all suggested that they would not mind sacking the APC under a coalition of united political parties, but want in the same breath to contest the presidency on the platform of their respective parties.
Analysts, therefore, are of the view that the small-fry political parties can pull a surprise or two in the present state of uncertainty and undecidedness.
THE SDP
This is arguably the fringe party profiting the most from all the chaos in the big three opposition parties.
The SDP is now associated with a former Governor of Kaduna State, Nasir El-Rufai, who took refuge under the party’s wings after a relationship with his former party, the APC, went sour.
Because El-Rufai is a Northerner, analysts say that the SDP is likely to spring a surprise on Nigerians and win some votes in the region.
The former Federal Capital Territory minister tried to persuade leaders and members of the other opposition parties to join the SDP, although the party raised a few eyebrows over the open invitation.
The Wole Adesina-led SDP quickly declared that the party was neither for sale nor lease to any political coalition or movement.
Surprisingly too, the party, through its National Publicity Secretary, Alfa Mohammed, said that its platform would not be used for launching attacks on Nigeria’s President, Bola Tinubu, or for promoting any coalition that lacks a credible alternative agenda for Nigeria’s transformation.
The party said it did not want to go through the appalling experience it had in 2019 when some “aggrieved” defectors from the PDP joined them and tried to seize control of it.
On the strength of their experience, the SDP is sounding off now to all adversaries that they can win Assembly seats, both state and federal, and even governorship and presidential elections.
THE ADC
The African Democratic Congress is the next big thing in the opposition political space and the party is also on the radar of opposition bigwigs.
Perhaps, because the SDP has taken a hardline posture, Atiku, Obi and El-Rufai were reported to have adopted the ADC as the primary coalition party to challenge the APC and Tinubu in the 2027 general elections.
To enhance the report’s credibility, the National Chairman of the ADC, Ralph Nwosu, confirmed that the party was engaged in coalition discussions with the opposition heavyweights.
The ADC also brushed off news that there was division in its ranks over the talks.
Also, the Deputy National Secretary of the party, Nkem Ukanfu, said, “The ADC remains firmly united and guided by the same founding principles that have kept us strong and consistent over the years.
“Handshake has always been in our DNA – not out of desperation, but because we believe in inclusive governance and coalition-building based on shared values. We are a party built on clear ideological direction and structured leadership.”
Some analysts say that Nwosu and Ukanfu want the ADC to become a household name in Nigeria just like the Labour Party did in 2023, and will certainly jump at the opportunity to host the opposition leaders.
THE AAC
The party was founded in 2018 by human rights activist, Omoyele Sowore, who ran as its presidential candidate in the 2019 presidential election.
Sowore tested his popularity again in the 2023 presidential election but fell short of winning the race. He however continues to say that the last election was not free and fair.
The outspoken politician has also said that he would not join a coalition of opposition parties, claiming that politicians like Atiku and Obi have similar ideology and policy direction as with members of the APC.
The AAC prides itself to be the only movement-powered, people-owned, grassroots-driven political party in Nigeria.
“Njoku also said that Nigerians have been talking a lot about the coalition between the PDP, LP and NNPP, but suggested that a “marriage” between the SDP, YPP, ADP and AAC would also make a lot of sense”
And the recent utterances of their leaders, like the ones made by the Oyo State chairman of the party, Kayode Babayomi, prove that they are not ready to take any prisoners in 2027.
Babayomi said that the AAC would rather form an alliance with the masses than other political parties.
“It is with the people we shall merge.
“It is with their collective will that we shall forge victory to take over this country and lead the Nigerian people to enjoy the dividends of democracy,” he assured.
Many analysts say that Sowore’s grit and activism have endeared him to many Nigerians who will be searching for a party that will give them a breath of fresh air in the 2027 election.
THE YPP
The party turned heads in 2023 when it emerged as one of the successful political parties in the 2023 general elections.
Although the party did not win any governorship race in 2023, it won a couple of seats in the National Assembly and State Houses of Assembly.
The YPP, whose slogan is ‘Service to the People’ has been counted among the parties that entered into coalition talks with other opposition parties.
However, close watchers of political events in the country still believe that should the coalition talks collapse, the YPP would do well on its own in 2027.
A political analyst, Maxwell Igwe, told The Point that the 2027 general elections would be one in which the SDP, AAC, ADC, and others like them “in the same WhatsApp group”, shine brighter.
He noted that all the “wahala” in the three, big opposition political parties have opened “gateways of opportunity” for the fringe opposition parties.
He said, “I hope you saw how the SDP, the YPP and the rest of the fringe opposition parties managed to squeeze out results in the 2023 general elections.
“2027 will be the year all those parties in the same WhatsApp group shine brighter.
“Nobody gave them any chance in 2023 but they managed to win a few seats in the National Assembly and the various State Houses of Assembly across the country.
“But trust me now when I say that all the ‘wahala’ in the three main opposition parties have opened gateways of opportunity for parties like the SDP and ADC.
“Those parties will rack up more votes and more seats both at the Federal level and State level in 2027.
“The PDP, LP and NNPP have almost been eaten up by controversies and not every Nigerian likes the APC.
“So, a lot of people will look for these smaller parties who will get giveaway votes from the electorate. People will choose to vote for them because they will be considered as necessary replacements for the old guard.”
Another analyst, Benedict Njoku, said, “Among the up-and-coming parties, the SDP will make more impact.
“Remember that the party has been here with us for a while now. It was the party MKO Abiola used for pursuing his presidential ambition, but we know how that adventure ended.
“My only worry for the SDP is that since El-Rufai went there to help them realise their potential so to speak, most people now see the party as a Northern party.”
Njoku also said that Nigerians have been talking a lot about the coalition between the PDP, LP and NNPP, but suggested that a “marriage” between the SDP, YPP, ADP and AAC would also make a lot of sense.
“Why not? They say never say never that is why I would love to see those after-thought parties enter into a marriage to form their own coalition.
“Why should politicians in the big opposition parties use them as their second-chance platforms when they don’t get the presidential ticket where they are coming from?
“It is not fair. And until the smaller opposition parties start taking their destinies in their hands, they would be used as foot mats by others.”