Although many prominent politicians and some Governors in Nigeria have been drumming up support for President Bola Tinubu’s 2027 reelection bid, there are concerns in some quarters that the overwhelming endorsements the president is currently receiving from political bigwigs may come to nothing if ordinary Nigerians don’t back him up.
Getting the support of Nigerians will be vital for the president’s political legacy because come 2027, he will be squaring off, all things being equal, with the members of a new coalition that are determined to wrest power from him.
The coalition will most likely be spearheaded by arguably the two biggest opposition figures in Nigeria, former Vice president Atiku Abubakar of the People’s Democratic Party and former Anambra State Governor Peter Obi of the Labour Party, both of whom had contested the 2023 presidential election.
Barring any unforeseen circumstances, Tinubu, as the sitting president, will automatically secure the nomination of his party, the All Progressives Congress – a party its members say is enjoying a new lease of life because the president is a larger-than-life leader.
But this disputed status quo in the APC has led some once high-flying members of the party, like former Governor of Kaduna State Nasir El-Rufai, to accuse the ruling party of lacking internal democracy, encouraging “godfatherism” and whatnot.
El-Rufai, who is now with the Social Democratic Party, had lamented before he left the APC, “I no longer recognise the APC. No party organ has met in two years – no caucus, no NEC, nothing. You don’t even know if it is a one-man show; it’s a zero-man show.”
After he left the APC, he doubled down on his earlier claims, “These anomalies – godfatherism and internal dysfunction – have destroyed both the APC and the PDP
“The SDP offers a fresh opportunity. It is a platform not under the control of any single individual.”
According to the presidency, Tinubu is not losing any sleep over El-Rufai’s dramatic volte-face on the APC.
Rather, Nigerians have been made to understand that the President is hard at work on making the APC the beautiful bride that opposition politicians want to court.
And on top of that, Nigerians have been informed that the President has also built a formidable political structure in the name of the APC, something analysts say will be put to the test by the coalition in 2027.
Be that as it may, Tinubu has been chalking up support from a number of opposition politicians, including governors, serving lawmakers and high-profile politicians, and this has riled up members of the People’s Democratic Party, whose views to see the party reclaim power in 2027 still hold true today.
Thus, Tinubu’s small wins notwithstanding, political commentators are stressing that the President should be wary of not relying on the goodwill of ordinary Nigerians even though the “errant” opposition politicians in question have dumped their respective parties, or are on the verge of doing so.
Despite the latest craze among the opposition politicians for the President to succeed, a situation adding insult to injury, El-Rufai, who still wants to call the shots, reminded Nigerians that a governor, including every other politician that has defected to the APC, has only one vote.
“A governor only has one vote. Elections are won by the people, not by politicians.
“The focus of the SDP is on mobilizing ordinary Nigerians, not chasing high-profile defections,” he said.
El-Rufai’s newfound coalition buddy, Atiku, has also suggested in a statement he posted on his official X account that irrespective of the mass defections, the presidential candidate that will win the soul of Nigeria in 2027 will be the one that the people have given their blessing to win the election.
The political heavyweight added that victory in the poll will not be determined by which party flag the winning candidate will be flying.
“Let us be clear: the coming political battle is not APC versus PDP, or LP versus APC. It is Nigerians versus an administration that has plunged the nation into untold suffering.
“The economy is in free-fall. Inflation is choking the masses. Jobs are vanishing. Youth restiveness is surging to terrifying levels. Nigerians are not just tired – they are angry, and rightfully so,” Atiku noted.
Adding his voice to that of the coalition leaders, a former presidential aspirant under the Labour Party, Faduri Oluwadare, stated that suffering Nigerians, not the political elite, would determine who wins the presidential election.
Oluwadare urged Nigerians to stop supporting leaders who are only after personal gain.
“We need leaders who genuinely care about the people, not those hopping from one political party to another just to stay in power,” Oluwadare said.
And he added, “Suffering will speak loudest in the 2027 election, not the recycled voices of politicians who have looted the country dry.
“These politicians have been in power for years, yet their communities remain underdeveloped. All they offer are motorcycles or token cash handouts, while neglecting real progress.”
A political analyst, Ifeoma Ogbonna, told The Point, “I have listened to the leaders of the expected coalition talking about people power and how that victory in the election will depend on the people.
“My fear is that in this part of the world, people almost all the time listen to their governors and the other political powers around them.
“If that happens again in 2027, it will be advantageous to Tinubu.”
“The President will have to make tough calls when the time is right, but since he is also a grassroots politician, I believe he will not relegate ordinary Nigerians to the background”
Ogbonna said the country has not gotten to the stage where governors, be it the ones in the ruling party or opposition parties, are powerless to influence the results of elections in this country.
In her opinion, governors know how they can “reach the people” and what to do in order to “soften the minds of their people whenever it is time for elections.”
She added, “This is why one week to an election, you would see both local and state governments suddenly fixing dilapidated roads or other infrastructures.
“But somehow, the people would be impressed with those leaders that are effecting the repairs. They will forget that for nearly four years, they didn’t enjoy that road or other amenities.
“And I don’t even want to talk about the N5, 000 governors allegedly gave before elections.
“Whether we like it or not, some Nigerians who collect such monies will appreciate them and give their support to those politicians.
“So, these defections, which some people say are inconsequential, might turn out to be strategic at the end of the day.”
A political analyst, Solomon Usanga, said governors “one vote” can also make a difference in the result of an election.
According to him, politics is a game of numbers that the President fully understands.
“I am almost tempted to take in everything Atiku said about governors having only one vote, hook line and sinker.
“But I slap myself back to reality by reminding myself that even one vote can make a difference when the chips are down.
“Politics is a game of numbers. If you can gain one voter to your side, he or she can help to build your block of victory. You need everyone and every vote you can get matters.
“And that is the area I think the President understands more than his opponents.
“The President will have to make tough calls when the time is right, but since he is also a grassroots politician, I believe he will not relegate ordinary Nigerians to the background.
“But if he did so, he would realise that Nigerians know how to get back at anyone for throwing them under the bus, ask former President (Goodluck)
Jonathan.”