BY BRIGHT JACOB
Atiku Abubakar is undoubtedly one of Nigeria’s political powerhouses. He is, even though it is open to debate, Nigeria’s version of America’s Abraham Lincoln, who got elected into office as the global superpower’s 16th President.
Both men share a lot in common and are politicians with irrefutable pedigree, who helped shape, and are still helping to do so in the case of Atiku, the political landscape of their respective countries.
Both men have also left marks of their political sagacity indelibly engraved in the minds of their people, and Atiku, like Lincoln who is immortalised in the US, will be the subject of folklore discussions when generations of Nigerians yet unborn talk about the exploits of the heroes and heroines of democracy from Nigeria.
But the story wasn’t always rosy for the two politicians. While Lincoln was born into an indigent family, Atiku was fathered by a man who detested western education and the young Atiku wasn’t allowed to attend primary school until the intervention of the authorities.
Also, before Atiku and Lincoln dabbled into politics or found their feet and became bastions of hope for many of their countrymen and women, they had inexplicably tasted failure in business.
They were also victims of other harrowing circumstances. But like the greats they will always be, they emerged from “fire” and are celebrated today. Moreover, because they have inspired millions the world over, Lincoln and Atiku are among eminent persons who have pride of place in the “hall of fame” of their respective countries.
“For Atiku, becoming the Commander-in-Chief of Nigeria’s Armed Forces has become such a big deal. But he will soon be 77-years old in November. Age is no longer on his side and owing to this truth, his outing in the 2023 election could be his swansong”
The two men, doubtless, excelled in the political arena, but not without some setbacks. Starting with Lincoln, he began to run for elective office in 1832. He contested eight elections, albeit, unsuccessfully, before he eventually became the United States’ President. The roll calls of his failures include elections into state legislature, congress and senate, where he tasted bitter pills of defeat.
Lincoln would go on to win the Presidency of the United States in 1860 but was, sadly, assassinated in 1865. Probably the most preeminent example of persistence on the grounds that he was a failure, Lincoln’s life and initial failures became the reference point for resilience and dogged perseverance in the face of crippling failures, as well as for the “don’t quit” attitude and spirit. And this is where Atiku comes in.
The former Vice President has also seen action in the political arena in his quest to become Nigeria’s president. But while Lincoln strove to be elected into diverse offices, Atiku made the presidency the bull’s eye, which his relentless shots in 1992, 2007, 2011, 2015, 2019 and 2023 have all failed to hit. This is without prejudice to the ongoing case at the Presidential Election Petition Tribunal.
And this is where the similarities between Atiku and the late Lincoln end. While Lincoln was able to occupy the White House in Washington DC, the equivalent of Abuja’s Aso Rock Villa, Atiku cannot say the same for himself and he is yet to call the presidential villa his home.
After his sixth attempt at the Presidency, Atiku failed to re-enact a similar feat as Lincoln’s, and one of the unpalatable consequences of this is that the window of opportunity for him to realise his presidential ambition is rapidly closing against him.
The recent election was probably Atiku’s best shot at capturing the Presidency. He didn’t contest against a former military general like Buhari who beat him twice in previous elections, or an incumbent President like Musa Yar’Adua. He contested against “first timers” for Nigeria’s top job but still fell short of victory.
Bola Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress and Peter Obi of the Labour Party were also eyeing the presidency and were experiencing their “baptism of fire” in the presidential race. They were the major hurdles for Atiku to cross.
However, after the last ballot was cast, the former Governor of Lagos State was declared winner and President-elect by the Independent National Electoral Commission. And no thanks to Tinubu’s undying penchant for wanting to acquire presidential powers, his victory marked the beginning of Atiku’s predicament as the Wazirin Adamawa came second in a contest where only one winner was rewarded.
However, that “reward” to Tinubu is now a subject of dispute before the Presidential Election Petition Tribunal. Atiku will, like millions of other Nigerians, wait for the decision of the Tribunal, and, most likely, that of the Supreme Court, if any of the former aspirants, or even the President-elect himself, is disgruntled with the judgments of the lower court.
For the time being, Atiku will, perhaps, be an emotional roller coaster. And whether seated in a cluster of family and friends or even during the course of pursuing his day-to-day business activities, two of the thoughts that will likely continue to crisscross his mind are those of the fate of his political career and whether his yet-to-be-realised presidential ambition, which he has sacrificed so much for, would be realised, against all the odds.
Mercifully, Atiku is like the proverbial cat with nine lives. He is set and determined to keep swinging for the fences.
And judging by his unwavering stance in matters of national interest, he will not go down without the imperative legal fight he has repeatedly said would “correct” the electoral injustice that was, in his view, orchestrated by the electoral umpire, INEC.
And as much as the probability exists where the courts could void Tinubu’s election and declare Atiku victorious, there is also the probability of Atiku not getting a favourable verdict and the potential of him making a retreat to square one to, as they say, restrategise.
It is the second eventuality that has compelled stakeholders and concerned Nigerians, alike, to begin to make frantic inquiries about the possibility of the 2023 presidential election being Atiku’s last outing or whether he would soldier on in 2027 to realise his ambition.
Asked about Atiku’s political future, a chieftain of the PDP, Anselm Ojezua, told The Point that the PDP would always “get to the bridge before crossing it.”
He also said that quitting or not would be the prerogative of Atiku.
In addition, Ojezua, who is also a lawyer, said that Atiku has a good chance at the Presidential Election Petition Tribunal because Tinubu had admitted to forfeiting money in a drug-related case.
“I think it’s when we get to the bridge that we will cross it. And that’s a personal decision Atiku has to make.
“But I think he has a very good chance in the petition. Because from what I’ve seen in the news, Tinubu is not denying that he forfeited money in a drug-related case. So, if he is not denying, it amounts to an admission (of guilt) and that alone should disqualify him. And I don’t know which judge will rightfully perceive this to be something that he or she should gloss over. Well, we are watching. This is Nigeria.
“The next one is INEC. They are saying that the transmission of results at the Polling Units is not fundamental to the electoral process. But that is completely different from what they told us before the election.
“It is the transmission of results that gives integrity to the (electoral) process. So, what that tells me is that if that is not done, that means the process has lost its integrity and therefore it cannot be said to be in substantial compliance. And don’t forget, it’s not just a guideline, it is part of the law.
“The absence of transmission, in my opinion, has made INEC to abort that election effectively. So, even if the court says that the election is substantially complied with, then Tinubu will lose his votes because he is not qualified.
“In any case, I am very much afraid to imagine that my president will be perceived as a drug-pusher or somebody who is related to drug trafficking….that is a big burden,” Ojezua concluded.
For Atiku, becoming the Commander-in-Chief of Nigeria’s Armed Forces has become such a big deal. But he will soon be 77-years old in November. Age is no longer on his side and owing to this truth, his outing in the 2023 election could be his swansong.
However, staunch supporters of Atiku have dismissed the notion that age could be a stumbling block to him now or in 2027.
They point to the current president of the US, Joe Biden, who will be 80-years old next year when the presidential election will hold and Biden will likely seek re-election. And while pointing out that Biden is still going stronger, they insist that Atiku, the younger of the two, has a lot more going for him.
Furthermore, they argue that the most vital ingredient needed for contesting an election is “good health,” without which all other requirements would be “useless”.
They also applaud and praise Atiku for “getting wiser with age,” and have the conviction that Nigerians will benefit from his vast economic and political knowledge.
Not long ago, precisely in January, Atiku’s health status became the subject of controversy during the build-up to the presidential election. While the barometer for public opinion about the better candidate between him and Tinubu was still fluctuating, some media outlets had been awash with news about the “debilitating” state of Atiku’s health.
The news spread like wildfire that Atiku was sick and had been flown from Dubai, the United Arab Emirates, to London, the United Kingdom, where he was admitted in a private medical facility for treatment and the APC, as expected, was among the first political parties that urged Atiku to come clean with Nigerians about his health status.
Atiku would, however, deny the media reports. He told Nigerians to “disregard the lies of unrepentant liars” and that he was “100 percent fit and in super form health-wise.” And to prove the conditions of his physical and mental states, Atiku said he would furnish Nigerians with his health status if need be.
To dispel further doubts, Atiku’s handlers posted several videos of the political aficionado working out in the gym on his social media pages and several people who commented under the posts dared Tinubu to replicate the workouts to prove his own fitness.
ALLEGED CORRUPTION CASES
Many corruption allegations have been leveled against Atiku and it remains to be seen how much of a bottleneck they will be in 2027 if he loses at the Presidential Election Petition Tribunal and then decides to contest for the presidency one more time.
His critics have advised him to address all the “legendary corruption allegations” hanging like an albatross around his neck, and then spare Nigerians the embarrassment of having a President who was yet to wriggle his way out of the multiple allegations tarnishing his reputation. Atiku has, however, strenuously denied any criminal wrongdoing.
After he left the civil service as an officer of the Nigerian Customs Service in 1989, Atiku, who had already ventured into private business while he was with the Customs, decided to focus on politics. But being the dirty game politics is in this clime, he was accused of embezzling government funds while he was Deputy Director, the then second highest position in the Customs.
Not only that, as vice president of Nigeria under Olusegun Obasanjo, he was also fingered for corruption when he was accused of diverting public funds towards his business concerns. This was the period he was under investigation and his relationship with Obasanjo had gone sour.
In 2010, Atiku was also allegedly indicted in a 2010 US senate report, which accused the former head of Nigeria’s economic team of laundering money using one of his wife’s foreign bank accounts.
There were also the allegations made by Michael Achimogu, who claimed to be Atiku’s former aide and this was before the presidential election in February. Achimogu claimed that Atiku used the Special Purpose Vehicles scheme to collect funds from a convicted but pardoned (by Buhari) former Governor of Plateau State, Joshua Dariye.
INTRA PARTY SQUABBLES
Atiku’s political party, the PDP, has been embroiled in an internal wrangling which, most likely, contributed to his below par performance during the polls. Five disgruntled governors had opposed Atiku’s candidacy, vowing that the PDP would lose at the presidential election.
The five governors, known as the G-5, made good their threat as the PDP failed to win any of the five states under the jurisdiction of those governors. Among the dramatis personae, the governor of Rivers State, Nyesom Wike, is the leader of the group. His grouse was that Atiku and the then-National Chairman of the party, Iyorchia Ayu, shouldn’t emerge from the same region.
Wike predicted that should Ayu not resign, Atiku would go down with him. Disturbingly, those gloomy words came to pass. And discreditably for Atiku, his rating and the respect he enjoys in the PDP are now drastically declining.
The presidential election now done and dusted, the cracks in the PDP are still glaring. Though the new helmsman at the party, Umar Damagun, has initiated a much-needed healing process in the party with the reinstatement of some expelled members, political pundits have noted that the “healing” would not be complete until it was decided that another possible Atiku ticket in 2027 will not be on the card.
“Sadly, the vast economic and political knowledge our political leaders have had over the years have not been effective and efficient in the running of the state. So, we don’t think we need any more of that knowledge or experience that they have”
Another PDP chieftain who spoke to The Point, Ogbeide Ifaluyi-Isibor, said that it was time Atiku bid the PDP farewell and retired to his “home” in Dubai.
According to Ogbeide, the outcome of Atiku’s petition at the Tribunal would not be favourable to the PDP and Atiku should quit instead of waiting and making his moves after the judgments of the courts.
Ogbeide, who supported Obi during the election, also said that in spite of Atiku’s “vast economic and political knowledge,” it was time the nation had “new ideas, new blood and fresh thinkers” into the political system.
Ogbeide said, “I don’t know why Atiku needs to wait till the outcome of the petition. He should resign immediately.
What’s the point waiting for the outcome of the Tribunal? It’s not going to be favourable to the PDP…there’s no doubt about that.
“In my view, in fairness to Atiku, the man has ‘retired’ already because we heard that shortly after the results were announced…a few days after, he went back ‘home’ (to Dubai) where he normally resides. And that’s what normally happens every four years’ time.
“In four years’ time, too, Baba will be over 80 years old and, of course, ineligible to lead a nation where the median age is 17 years. So, I think it is unfair for them to ask him to resign after the determination of the petition. I think he should just do it right away.
“Sadly, the vast economic and political knowledge our political leaders have had over the years have not been effective and efficient in the running of the state. So, we don’t think we need any more of that knowledge or experience that they have.
“I don’t give credence to any knowledge or expertise that they come with ….those who are over 65 and above. It is time for us to have new ideas, new blood, fresh thinkers into the political system,” he declared.
Speaking further, Ogbeide also addressed the thinking that Atiku would be “the greatest president Nigeria never had” if he bowed out without tasting office.
According to him, before the 2015 election, Buhari was addressed as such, but after he won the election, he became “the worst president Nigeria has ever had.”
